Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Trophy › Loughborough University v Stourbridge

Back
England flag

Loughborough University v Stourbridge

Loughborough University
0–2Full time
Stourbridge

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Loughborough University 0–2 Stourbridge STOURBRIDGE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stourbridge win45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.459

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stourbridge win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Stourbridge was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Loughborough University v Stourbridge
  4. 36′Stourbridge find the net on 36′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–72
  5. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Loughborough University 0–1 Stourbridge
  6. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Stourbridge win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
  7. 37′We published Stourbridge at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
  8. 37′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Loughborough University 0–1 Stourbridge
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Loughborough University 0–1 Stourbridge
  11. 51′We published Stourbridge at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  12. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Stourbridge win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
  13. 66′We published Stourbridge at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  14. 75′We published Stourbridge at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  15. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Stourbridge win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
  16. 78′A goal for Stourbridge on 78′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  17. 78′We published Stourbridge at 45%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  18. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Loughborough University 0–2 Stourbridge
  19. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Stourbridge win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
  20. 82′L. Brazier scores for Stourbridge on 77′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  21. 83′We published Stourbridge at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  22. FTFULL TIME Loughborough University 0–2 Stourbridge
  23. FTLoughborough University 0–2 Stourbridge · Stourbridge win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stourbridge are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Loughborough University 30%, draw 25%, Stourbridge 45%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Loughborough University v StourbridgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Loughborough University win30%
Draw25%
Stourbridge win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Loughborough University

Stourbridge

28Days since last match7

Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

0Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stourbridge winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make Stourbridge a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Loughborough University v Stourbridge1.31 – 1.64
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 AugW3 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Loughborough University win30%––
Draw25%––
Stourbridge win45%––
Over 2.5 goals57%––
Both teams to score59%––
Over 1.5 goals80%––
Over 3.5 goals34%––
Loughborough University or draw55%––
Loughborough University clean sheet19%––
Stourbridge clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 5.6 8.2 7.0 3.8 1 6.5 11.6 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 4.5 7.4 6.1 3.3 3 3.2 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Loughborough University down, Stourbridge across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 Aug

LOUGHBOROUGH UNIVERSITY

WWW1–0 · 4–3 · 2–1

STOURBRIDGE

W3–1