Leek Town v Bootle
Leek TownBootleFA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Leek Town are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Leek Town 41%, draw 26%, Bootle 33%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Leek Town win41%Bootle win33%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
Round1/128-finals
Match timeline
All events
Leek TownMINBootleEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Leek Town
Bootle
Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern
Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Leek Town a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leek Town win | 41% | 31% | +10 |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | +3 |
| Bootle win | 33% | 46% | −13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 66% | −11 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 67% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 83% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 47% | −15 |
| Leek Town or draw | 67% | 54% | +13 |
| Leek Town clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Bootle clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 Aug
LEEK TOWN
BOOTLE