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Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Trophy › Hastings United v Waltham Abbey

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Hastings United v Waltham Abbey

Hastings United
2–3Full time
Waltham Abbey

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Hastings United 2–3 Waltham Abbey WALTHAM ABBEY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Waltham Abbey win42%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.500
The market’s Brier score0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Waltham Abbey win at 42%.
  2. 19′Much as we predicted: Waltham Abbey was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
  3. 28′Waltham Abbey find the net on 27′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–90
  4. 28′We published Waltham Abbey at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
  5. 28′A goal for Waltham Abbey on 28′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–97
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Hastings United 0–2 Waltham Abbey
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Waltham Abbey win: 42% at kick-off, 90% now
  8. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Hastings United 0–3 Waltham Abbey
  9. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Waltham Abbey win: 42% at kick-off, 97% now
  10. 29′We published Waltham Abbey at 42%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–3 · 1–2–97
  11. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–2–97
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Hastings United 0–3 Waltham Abbey
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Hastings United 0–3 Waltham Abbey
  14. 63′We published Waltham Abbey at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  15. 75′Hastings United score on 74′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–98
  16. 75′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–98
  17. 75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hastings United 1–3 Waltham Abbey
  18. 83′Hastings United find the net on 83′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–8–91
  19. 83′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–8–91
  20. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Hastings United 2–3 Waltham Abbey
  21. FTFULL TIME Hastings United 2–3 Waltham Abbey
  22. FTHastings United 2–3 Waltham Abbey · Waltham Abbey win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Waltham Abbey are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hastings United 32%, draw 26%, Waltham Abbey 42%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Hastings United v Waltham AbbeyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hastings United win32%
Draw26%
Waltham Abbey win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hastings United

Waltham Abbey

28Days since last match28

Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · waltham abbey winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
42% The market41%
Us42%
Market41%

We make Waltham Abbey a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hastings United v Waltham Abbey1.29 – 1.53
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L0
The market · Waltham Abbey win41% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Waltham Abbey win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hastings United win32%34%−2
Draw26%25%+1
Waltham Abbey win42%41%+1
Over 2.5 goals53%68%−15
Both teams to score57%68%−11
Over 1.5 goals78%84%−6
Over 3.5 goals31%49%−18
Hastings United or draw58%59%−1
Hastings United clean sheet22%––
Waltham Abbey clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%
0123450 6.4 8.7 6.9 3.5 1 7.3 12.2 9.0 4.6 2 5.0 7.6 5.8 3.0 3 2.1 3.3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hastings United down, Waltham Abbey across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 Aug

HASTINGS UNITED

WDW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

WALTHAM ABBEY

WWW2–0 · 2–0 · 7–1