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Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Trophy › Gosport Borough v Chichester City

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Gosport Borough v Chichester City

Gosport Borough
0–2Full time
Chichester City

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Gosport Borough 0–2 Chichester City GOSPORT BOROUGH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Gosport Borough win39%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.618
The market’s Brier score0.717

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Gosport Borough just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Gosport Borough 39%, draw 25%, Chichester City 36%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Gosport Borough v Chichester CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gosport Borough win39%
Draw25%
Chichester City win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gosport Borough

Chichester City

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gosport borough winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
39% The market43%
Us39%
Market43%

We make Gosport Borough a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gosport Borough v Chichester City1.56 – 1.50
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Gosport Borough win43% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Gosport Borough win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gosport Borough win39%43%−4
Draw25%25%0
Chichester City win36%32%+4
Over 2.5 goals59%59%0
Both teams to score62%61%+1
Over 1.5 goals81%79%+2
Over 3.5 goals37%40%−3
Gosport Borough or draw64%68%−4
Gosport Borough clean sheet22%––
Chichester City clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 5.1 6.7 5.3 2.6 1 7.0 11.3 8.2 4.1 2 5.7 8.6 6.4 3.2 3 3.0 4.4 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gosport Borough down, Chichester City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 Sept

GOSPORT BOROUGH

W3–1

CHICHESTER CITY

W2–1