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Model 1.2

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Faversham Town v Newmarket

Faversham Town
0–1Full time
Newmarket

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
Faversham Town 0–1 Newmarket FAVERSHAM TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Faversham Town win51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Faversham Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Faversham Town 51%, draw 22%, Newmarket 27%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Faversham Town v NewmarketBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Faversham Town win51%
Draw22%
Newmarket win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Faversham Town

Newmarket

28Days since last match28

Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · faversham town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
51% The market–
Us51%

We make Faversham Town a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Faversham Town v Newmarket2.03 – 1.44
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 AugW3 D0 L0 · W2 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Faversham Town win51%––
Draw22%––
Newmarket win27%––
Over 2.5 goals67%––
Both teams to score67%––
Over 1.5 goals86%––
Over 3.5 goals46%––
Faversham Town or draw73%––
Faversham Town clean sheet24%––
Newmarket clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%
0123450 3.4 4.2 3.2 1 6.0 9.4 6.6 3.2 2 6.4 9.2 6.6 3.2 3 4.3 6.2 4.5 2.2 4 2.2 3.2 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Faversham Town down, Newmarket across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 Aug

FAVERSHAM TOWN

WWW3–0 · 6–2 · 2–0

NEWMARKET

DWW2–2 · 5–2 · 2–1