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Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Trophy › Egham Town v Uxbridge

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Egham Town v Uxbridge

Egham Town
0–3Full time
Uxbridge

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Egham Town 0–3 Uxbridge UXBRIDGE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Uxbridge win43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Uxbridge win at 43%.
  2. 17′Much as we predicted: Uxbridge was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 33–26–41
  3. 42′Uxbridge score on 42′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–70
  4. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Egham Town 0–1 Uxbridge
  5. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Uxbridge win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
  6. 43′We published Uxbridge at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Egham Town 0–1 Uxbridge
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Egham Town 0–1 Uxbridge
  9. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Uxbridge win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  10. 60′We published Uxbridge at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
  11. 71′We published Uxbridge at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  12. 72′Uxbridge find the net on 72′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  13. 72′We published Uxbridge at 43%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  14. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Egham Town 0–2 Uxbridge
  15. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Uxbridge win: 43% at kick-off, 97% now
  16. 84′We published Uxbridge at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  17. 92′A goal for Uxbridge on 90′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  18. 92′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  19. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Egham Town 0–3 Uxbridge
  20. FTFULL TIME Egham Town 0–3 Uxbridge
  21. FTEgham Town 0–3 Uxbridge · Uxbridge win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uxbridge are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Egham Town 33%, draw 24%, Uxbridge 43%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Egham Town v UxbridgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Egham Town win33%
Draw24%
Uxbridge win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Egham Town

Uxbridge

28Days since last match4

Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

0Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uxbridge winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make Uxbridge a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Egham Town v Uxbridge1.54 – 1.77
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Uxbridge win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Egham Town win33%––
Draw24%––
Uxbridge win43%––
Over 2.5 goals64%––
Both teams to score65%––
Over 1.5 goals85%––
Over 3.5 goals42%––
Egham Town or draw57%––
Egham Town clean sheet17%––
Uxbridge clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 4.0 6.2 5.7 3.4 1 5.3 10.3 8.8 5.2 2.3 2 4.3 7.7 6.8 4.0 3 2.2 3.9 3.5 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Egham Town down, Uxbridge across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 29 Aug

EGHAM TOWN

WDW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

UXBRIDGE

W2–1