Dartford v Three Bridges
DartfordThree BridgesFA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Dartford win at 65%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Dartford 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–18–17
- 1′KICK-OFF Dartford v Three Bridges
- 22′Dartford score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Dartford 1–0 Three Bridges
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Dartford win: 65% at kick-off, 82% now
- 23′We said Dartford at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 82–12–6
- 44′Dartford find the net on 44′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Dartford 2–0 Three Bridges
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Dartford win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
- 45′We said Dartford at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 45′HALF-TIME Dartford 2–0 Three Bridges
- 46′SECOND HALF Dartford 2–0 Three Bridges
- 51′A goal for Dartford on 51′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Dartford 3–0 Three Bridges
- 56′Three Bridges score on 56′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–1
- 56′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–3–1
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Dartford 3–1 Three Bridges
- 78′Three Bridges find the net on 77′. 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
- 78′5 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 89–10–1
- 78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Dartford 3–2 Three Bridges
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Dartford win: 65% at kick-off, 89% now
- 79′We said Dartford at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 3–2 · 89–10–1
- 80′We said Dartford at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
- 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Dartford win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
- FTFULL TIME Dartford 3–2 Three Bridges
- FTDartford 3–2 Three Bridges · Dartford win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Dartford are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Dartford 65%, draw 18%, Three Bridges 17%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Dartford win65%Three Bridges win17%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
Round1/128-finals
Match timeline
All events
DartfordMINThree BridgesEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Dartford
Three Bridges
Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Dartford a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dartford win | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | −2 |
| Three Bridges win | 17% | 20% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 85% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Dartford or draw | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Dartford clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Three Bridges clean sheet | 8% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 25 Sept
DARTFORD
THREE BRIDGES