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Model 1.2

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Bury v Prescot Cables

Bury
3–0Full time
Prescot Cables

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT · Gigg Lane

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Bury 3–0 Prescot Cables BURY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bury win66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.182

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bury win at 66%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Bury was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–22–13
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bury v Prescot Cables
  4. 6′A goal for Bury on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–4
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Bury 1–0 Prescot Cables
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Bury win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
  7. 7′We published Bury at 66%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–4
  8. 26′A goal for Bury on 27′. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  9. 27′We published Bury at 66%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  10. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Bury 2–0 Prescot Cables
  11. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Bury win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Bury 2–0 Prescot Cables
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Bury 2–0 Prescot Cables
  14. 54′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  15. 66′Bury find the net on 66′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  16. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Bury 3–0 Prescot Cables
  17. 67′We published Bury at 66%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. FTFULL TIME Bury 3–0 Prescot Cables
  20. FTBury 3–0 Prescot Cables · Bury win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bury are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bury 66%, draw 21%, Prescot Cables 13%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Bury v Prescot CablesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bury win66%
Draw21%
Prescot Cables win13%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

VenueGigg Lane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bury

Prescot Cables

4Days since last match28

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 26 Sept · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bury winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
66% The market–
Us66%

We make Bury a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bury v Prescot Cables1.96 – 0.75
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 28 AugW0 D1 L0 · W1 D2 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bury win66%––
Draw21%––
Prescot Cables win13%––
Over 2.5 goals51%––
Both teams to score46%––
Over 1.5 goals76%––
Over 3.5 goals29%––
Bury or draw87%––
Bury clean sheet47%––
Prescot Cables clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.8%
0123450 7.0 4.7 1 12.7 10.1 3.7 2 12.8 9.6 3.6 3 8.3 6.3 2.4 4 4.1 3.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bury down, Prescot Cables across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 28 Aug

BURY

D3–3

PRESCOT CABLES

WDD4–1 · 1–1 · 1–1