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Model 1.2

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Avro v Hyde United

Avro
2–1Full time
Hyde United

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Avro 2–1 Hyde United AVRO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Avro win59%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.249
The market’s Brier score0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Avro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avro 59%, draw 22%, Hyde United 19%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Avro v Hyde UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Avro win59%
Draw22%
Hyde United win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avro

Hyde United

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · avro winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
59% The market58%
Us59%
Market58%

We make Avro a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Avro v Hyde United2.05 – 1.08
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Avro win58% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Avro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Avro win59%58%+1
Draw22%22%0
Hyde United win19%20%−1
Over 2.5 goals61%61%0
Both teams to score58%59%−1
Over 1.5 goals82%80%+2
Over 3.5 goals38%41%−3
Avro or draw81%80%+1
Avro clean sheet34%––
Hyde United clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.7 4.4 2.6 1 8.6 10.0 5.3 2 9.2 9.9 5.4 3 6.2 6.8 3.7 4 3.2 3.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Avro down, Hyde United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsHYD 0–1 AVR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 Sept

AVRO

W2–0

HYDE UNITED

W2–0