Aveley v Carshalton Athletic
AveleyCarshalton AthleticFA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Aveley win at 54%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Aveley was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–21–25
- 1′KICK-OFF Aveley v Carshalton Athletic
- 9′A goal for Aveley on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–15–10
- 9′We published Aveley at 54%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–15–10
- 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Aveley 1–0 Carshalton Athletic
- 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Aveley win: 54% at kick-off, 75% now
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–16–8
- 45′HALF-TIME Aveley 1–0 Carshalton Athletic
- 46′SECOND HALF Aveley 1–0 Carshalton Athletic
- 53′Aveley score on 53′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Aveley 2–0 Carshalton Athletic
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Aveley win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
- 54′We published Aveley at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 83′We published Aveley at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 94′Carshalton Athletic find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Aveley 2–1 Carshalton Athletic
- FTFULL TIME Aveley 2–1 Carshalton Athletic
- FTAveley 2–1 Carshalton Athletic · Aveley win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Aveley are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Aveley 54%, draw 21%, Carshalton Athletic 25%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Aveley win54%Carshalton Athletic win25%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
Round1/128-finals
Match timeline
All events
AveleyMINCarshalton AthleticEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Aveley
Carshalton Athletic
Last match: 19 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Aveley a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aveley win | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Carshalton Athletic win | 25% | 25% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 41% | +1 |
| Aveley or draw | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Aveley clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Carshalton Athletic clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 25 Sept
AVELEY
CARSHALTON ATHLETIC