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Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Trophy › Ashton United v Redcar Athletic

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Ashton United v Redcar Athletic

Ashton United
1–0Full time
Redcar Athletic

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Ashton United 1–0 Redcar Athletic REDCAR ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Redcar Athletic win52%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.893
The market’s Brier score0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Redcar Athletic win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Redcar Athletic 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 25–23–52
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ashton United v Redcar Athletic
  4. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Redcar Athletic win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Ashton United 0–0 Redcar Athletic
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Ashton United 0–0 Redcar Athletic
  7. 49′We said Redcar Athletic at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 23–37–40
  8. 51′We said Redcar Athletic at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 22–38–39
  9. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–41–37
  10. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Redcar Athletic win 39%)
  11. 61′We said Redcar Athletic at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 20–46–34
  12. 63′Ashton United find the net on 62′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–25–8
  13. 63′We said Redcar Athletic at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 67–25–8
  14. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Ashton United 1–0 Redcar Athletic
  15. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Redcar Athletic win: 52% at kick-off, 8% now
  16. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Ashton United win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 47%)
  17. 73′We said Redcar Athletic at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
  18. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Redcar Athletic win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
  19. 80′Redcar Athletic are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  20. 80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Redcar Athletic
  21. 81′PENALTY MISSED · 81' Ashton United
  22. FTFULL TIME Ashton United 1–0 Redcar Athletic
  23. FTAshton United 1–0 Redcar Athletic · Redcar Athletic win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Redcar Athletic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ashton United 25%, draw 23%, Redcar Athletic 52%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Ashton United v Redcar AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ashton United win25%
Draw23%
Redcar Athletic win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ashton United

Redcar Athletic

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · redcar athletic winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
52% The market46%
Us52%
Market46%

We make Redcar Athletic a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ashton United v Redcar Athletic1.25 – 1.90
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 SeptW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Redcar Athletic win46% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Redcar Athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ashton United win25%28%−3
Draw23%25%−2
Redcar Athletic win52%46%+6
Over 2.5 goals61%56%+5
Both teams to score61%59%+2
Over 1.5 goals83%77%+6
Over 3.5 goals39%36%+3
Ashton United or draw48%54%−6
Ashton United clean sheet15%––
Redcar Athletic clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 4.6 7.8 7.7 4.9 2.3 1 5.0 10.5 9.7 6.1 2.9 2 3.3 6.4 6.0 3.8 3 2.6 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ashton United down, Redcar Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsASH 1–2 RED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 Sept

ASHTON UNITED

D2–2

REDCAR ATHLETIC

W1–0