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Anstey Nomads v Bromsgrove Sporting

Anstey Nomads
0–1Full time
Bromsgrove Sporting

FA Trophy · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
Anstey Nomads 0–1 Bromsgrove Sporting ANSTEY NOMADS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Anstey Nomads win56%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.002
The market’s Brier score0.595

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Anstey Nomads are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anstey Nomads 56%, draw 23%, Bromsgrove Sporting 21%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Anstey Nomads v Bromsgrove SportingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Anstey Nomads win56%
Draw23%
Bromsgrove Sporting win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

Round1/128-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anstey Nomads

Bromsgrove Sporting

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · anstey nomads winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 04:16 · locked at kick-off
56% The market36%
Us56%
Market36%

We make Anstey Nomads a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 20 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Anstey Nomads v Bromsgrove Sporting1.89 – 1.06
Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Anstey Nomads win36% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%30%40%50%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Anstey Nomads win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Anstey Nomads win56%36%+20
Draw23%26%−3
Bromsgrove Sporting win21%37%−16
Over 2.5 goals56%52%+4
Both teams to score56%57%−1
Over 1.5 goals80%74%+6
Over 3.5 goals34%32%+2
Anstey Nomads or draw79%63%+16
Anstey Nomads clean sheet35%––
Bromsgrove Sporting clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%
0123450 5.6 5.2 2.9 1 9.6 10.9 5.6 2 9.4 9.9 5.2 3 5.9 6.2 3.3 4 2.8 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Anstey Nomads down, Bromsgrove Sporting across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsBRO 1–2 ANS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Trophy this season · since 26 Sept

ANSTEY NOMADS

W3–1

BROMSGROVE SPORTING

W1–0