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Model 1.2

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Yeovil Town v Leatherhead

Yeovil Town
5–2Full time
Leatherhead

FA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Huish Park

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Yeovil Town 5–2 Leatherhead YEOVIL TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Yeovil Town win75%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.093
The market’s Brier score0.179

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Yeovil Town win at 75%.
  2. 45′Leatherhead are down to ten from 44′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  3. 45′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Leatherhead
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Yeovil Town 3–1 Leatherhead
  5. 53′Yeovil Town find the net on 45′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–1–0
  6. 53′We said Yeovil Town at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–1–0
  7. 53′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–1–0
  8. 66′A goal for Yeovil Town on 58′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  9. 66′We said Yeovil Town at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  10. 66′⚽ GOAL · 58' Yeovil Town 4–1 Leatherhead
  11. 66′SECOND HALF Yeovil Town 4–1 Leatherhead
  12. 67′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  13. 68′A goal for Yeovil Town on 62′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  14. 82′Leatherhead find the net on 77′. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  15. 92′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  16. 92′⚽ GOAL · 77' Yeovil Town 4–2 Leatherhead
  17. 93′7 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  18. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Yeovil Town 5–2 Leatherhead
  19. 94′Yeovil Town find the net on 85′. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  20. 97′Yeovil Town find the net on 90′. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  21. FTFULL TIME Yeovil Town 5–2 Leatherhead
  22. FTYeovil Town 5–2 Leatherhead · Yeovil Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yeovil Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yeovil Town 75%, draw 16%, Leatherhead 9%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Yeovil Town v LeatherheadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

Yeovil Town win75%
Draw16%
Leatherhead win9%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

Round4th round qualifying

VenueHuish Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yeovil Town

Leatherhead

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yeovil town winFirst published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off
75% The market65%
Us75%
Market65%

We make Yeovil Town a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Yeovil Town v Leatherhead2.50 – 0.74
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 SeptW0 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L0
The market · Yeovil Town win65% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80% 18 OCT 09:3220 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Yeovil Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Yeovil Town win75%65%+10
Draw16%18%−2
Leatherhead win9%17%−8
Over 2.5 goals63%66%−3
Both teams to score48%58%−10
Over 1.5 goals84%84%0
Over 3.5 goals41%44%−3
Yeovil Town or draw91%83%+8
Yeovil Town clean sheet48%––
Leatherhead clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.2%
0123450 4.2 2.7 1 9.6 7.5 2.7 2 12.2 9.1 3.4 3 10.2 7.5 2.8 4 6.3 4.7 5 3.2 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Yeovil Town down, Leatherhead across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting6.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsLEA 3–3 YEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

YEOVIL TOWN

D3–3

LEATHERHEAD

WWWD3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–3