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Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Cup › Worcester City v Chorley

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Worcester City v Chorley

Worcester City
1–0Full time
Chorley

FA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · St. George's Lane

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 23:30
Worcester City 1–0 Chorley CHORLEY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chorley win47%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.820
The market’s Brier score0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chorley are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Worcester City 27%, draw 26%, Chorley 47%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Worcester City v ChorleyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

Worcester City win27%
Draw26%
Chorley win47%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

Round4th round qualifying

VenueSt. George's Lane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Worcester City

Chorley

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chorley winFirst published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off
47% The market37%
Us47%
Market37%

We make Chorley a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Worcester City v Chorley1.10 – 1.53
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 SeptW3 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L0
The market · Chorley win37% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 09:3220 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Chorley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Worcester City win27%37%−10
Draw26%26%0
Chorley win47%37%+10
Over 2.5 goals49%52%−3
Both teams to score53%56%−3
Over 1.5 goals74%74%0
Over 3.5 goals27%31%−4
Worcester City or draw53%63%−10
Worcester City clean sheet22%––
Chorley clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.6 10.6 8.4 4.3 1 7.5 12.5 9.3 4.7 2 4.4 6.7 5.1 2.6 3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Worcester City down, Chorley across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsCHO 1–1 WOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

WORCESTER CITY

DWWWD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

CHORLEY

WWD1–0 · 4–1 · 1–1