Uxbridge v AFC Hornchurch
UxbridgeAFC HornchurchFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Honeycroft
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAFC Hornchurch are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Uxbridge 21%, draw 22%, AFC Hornchurch 56%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Uxbridge win21%AFC Hornchurch win56%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenueHoneycroft
Match timeline
All events
UxbridgeMINAFC HornchurchEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Uxbridge
AFC Hornchurch
Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South
Last match: 10 Oct · the English National League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make AFC Hornchurch a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uxbridge win | 21% | 18% | +3 |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 0 |
| AFC Hornchurch win | 56% | 60% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Uxbridge or draw | 44% | 40% | +4 |
| Uxbridge clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
| AFC Hornchurch clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
UXBRIDGE
AFC HORNCHURCH
No matches in our record yet.