Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Cup › United of Manchester v Altrincham

Back
England flag

United of Manchester v Altrincham

United of Manchester
2–6Full time
Altrincham

FA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Broadhurst Park

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
United of Manchester 2–6 Altrincham ALTRINCHAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Altrincham win53%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.334
The market’s Brier score0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Altrincham win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Altrincham was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 23–24–53
  3. 1′KICK-OFF United of Manchester v Altrincham
  4. 13′United of Manchester score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 50–25–26
  5. 13′We said Altrincham at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 50–25–26
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' United of Manchester 1–0 Altrincham
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Altrincham win: 53% at kick-off, 26% now
  8. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' United of Manchester win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Altrincham win 51%)
  9. 15′A goal for Altrincham on 15′. 1–0 · 50–25–25
  10. 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' United of Manchester 1–1 Altrincham
  11. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Altrincham win: 53% at kick-off, 50% now
  12. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Altrincham win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was United of Manchester win 50%)
  13. 31′A goal for Altrincham on 31′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–16–78
  14. 31′We published Altrincham at 53%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–2 · 6–16–78
  15. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' United of Manchester 1–2 Altrincham
  16. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Altrincham win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
  17. 33′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–16–78
  18. 35′We published Altrincham at 53%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  19. 35′Altrincham score on 35′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  20. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' United of Manchester 1–3 Altrincham
  21. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Altrincham win: 53% at kick-off, 94% now
  22. 36′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  23. 41′We published Altrincham at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  24. 45′HALF-TIME United of Manchester 1–3 Altrincham
  25. 46′SECOND HALF United of Manchester 1–3 Altrincham
  26. 59′We published Altrincham at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  27. 59′Altrincham find the net on 58′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  28. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' United of Manchester 1–4 Altrincham
  29. 60′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  30. 66′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  31. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' United of Manchester 1–5 Altrincham
  32. 67′A goal for Altrincham on 66′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  33. 70′Altrincham score on 69′ to make it 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
  34. 70′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–6 · 0–0–100
  35. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' United of Manchester 1–6 Altrincham
  36. 81′8 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–6 · 0–0–100
  37. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' United of Manchester 2–6 Altrincham
  38. 82′United of Manchester find the net on 81′. 2–6. 2–6 · 0–0–100
  39. 84′United of Manchester find the net on 76′. 2–6. 2–6 · 0–0–100
  40. FTFULL TIME United of Manchester 2–6 Altrincham
  41. FTUnited of Manchester 2–6 Altrincham · Altrincham win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Altrincham are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: United of Manchester 23%, draw 24%, Altrincham 53%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on United of Manchester v AltrinchamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

United of Manchester win23%
Draw24%
Altrincham win53%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

Round4th round qualifying

VenueBroadhurst Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

United of Manchester

Altrincham

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altrincham winFirst published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off
53% The market46%
Us53%
Market46%

We make Altrincham a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · United of Manchester v Altrincham1.08 – 1.76
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 SeptW3 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0
The market · Altrincham win46% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 09:3220 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Altrincham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
United of Manchester win23%30%−7
Draw24%25%−1
Altrincham win53%46%+7
Over 2.5 goals54%57%−3
Both teams to score55%59%−4
Over 1.5 goals78%77%+1
Over 3.5 goals32%35%−3
United of Manchester or draw47%54%−7
United of Manchester clean sheet17%––
Altrincham clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.2 9.9 9.0 5.3 2.3 1 5.9 11.5 9.8 5.7 2.5 2 3.4 6.0 5.3 3.1 3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+United of Manchester down, Altrincham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting0.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsALT 0–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

UNITED OF MANCHESTER

WWWD5–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

ALTRINCHAM

D0–0