Torquay v Oxford City
TorquayOxford CityFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Plainmoor
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Torquay win at 49%.
- 3′Little has changed for our model: Torquay 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
- 3′KICK-OFF Torquay v Oxford City
- 7′Little has changed for our model: Torquay 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–26
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Torquay win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Torquay 0–0 Oxford City
- 46′SECOND HALF Torquay 0–0 Oxford City
- 51′We said Torquay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–40–23
- 53′We said Torquay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Torquay 0–1 Oxford City
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Torquay win: 49% at kick-off, 11% now
- 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Oxford City win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Torquay win 11%)
- 54′Oxford City score on 51′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
- 58′We said Torquay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Torquay win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
- 59′We said Torquay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 71′We said Torquay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
- FTFULL TIME Torquay 0–1 Oxford City
- FTTorquay 0–1 Oxford City · Torquay win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassTorquay are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Torquay 49%, draw 24%, Oxford City 26%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Torquay win49%Oxford City win26%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenuePlainmoor
Match timeline
All events
TorquayMINOxford CityEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Torquay
Oxford City
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Torquay a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torquay win | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | −1 |
| Oxford City win | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 33% | +2 |
| Torquay or draw | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Torquay clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Oxford City clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 19 Sept
TORQUAY
OXFORD CITY