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Model 1.2

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Sutton Utd v Truro City

Sutton Utd
1–0Full time
Truro City

FA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Borough Sports Ground

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Sutton Utd 1–0 Truro City SUTTON UTD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sutton Utd win45%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.448
The market’s Brier score0.422

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sutton Utd win at 45%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Sutton Utd was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Sutton Utd v Truro City
  4. 7′Much as we predicted: Sutton Utd was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
  5. 32′Sutton Utd find the net on 31′. 0–0 · 39–35–26
  6. 33′We published Sutton Utd at 45%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–7
  7. 33′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–7
  8. 33′⚽ GOAL · 31' Sutton Utd 1–0 Truro City
  9. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Sutton Utd win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
  10. 34′A goal for Sutton Utd on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  11. 34′We published Sutton Utd at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  12. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Sutton Utd win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Sutton Utd 1–0 Truro City
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Sutton Utd 1–0 Truro City
  15. 59′We published Sutton Utd at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  16. 71′We published Sutton Utd at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  17. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Sutton Utd win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
  18. 79′We published Sutton Utd at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  19. 86′We published Sutton Utd at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  20. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Sutton Utd win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
  21. FTFULL TIME Sutton Utd 1–0 Truro City
  22. FTSutton Utd 1–0 Truro City · Sutton Utd win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sutton Utd are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sutton Utd 45%, draw 27%, Truro City 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Sutton Utd v Truro CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sutton Utd win45%
Draw27%
Truro City win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

Round4th round qualifying

VenueBorough Sports Ground

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sutton Utd

Truro City

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sutton utd winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market47%
Us45%
Market47%

We make Sutton Utd a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sutton Utd v Truro City1.43 – 1.06
The market · Sutton Utd win47% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Sutton Utd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sutton Utd win45%47%−2
Draw27%27%0
Truro City win28%26%+2
Over 2.5 goals45%49%−4
Both teams to score49%53%−4
Over 1.5 goals71%71%0
Over 3.5 goals24%29%−5
Sutton Utd or draw72%74%−2
Sutton Utd clean sheet35%––
Truro City clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 8.8 8.7 4.7 1 11.8 12.5 6.5 2.3 2 8.5 8.8 4.6 3 4.1 4.2 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sutton Utd down, Truro City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSUT 0–3 TRU · TRU 2–3 SUT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 19 Sept

SUTTON UTD

No matches in our record yet.

TRURO CITY

DWW1–1 · 2–0 · 4–0