Spalding United v Alvechurch
Spalding UnitedAlvechurchFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassSpalding United are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Spalding United 55%, draw 23%, Alvechurch 22%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Spalding United win55%Alvechurch win22%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
Match timeline
All events
Spalding UnitedMINAlvechurchEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Spalding United
Alvechurch
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Spalding United a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spalding United win | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Alvechurch win | 22% | 23% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 72% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 29% | +6 |
| Spalding United or draw | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Spalding United clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
| Alvechurch clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
SPALDING UNITED
ALVECHURCH