Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Cup › Macclesfield v Anstey Nomads

Back
England flag

Macclesfield v Anstey Nomads

Macclesfield
1–1Full time
Anstey Nomads

FA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Moss Rose

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08
Macclesfield 1–1 Anstey Nomads MACCLESFIELD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Macclesfield win69%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.166
The market’s Brier score1.046

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Macclesfield are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Macclesfield 69%, draw 18%, Anstey Nomads 13%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Macclesfield v Anstey NomadsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Macclesfield win69%
Draw18%
Anstey Nomads win13%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

Round4th round qualifying

VenueMoss Rose

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Macclesfield

Anstey Nomads

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · macclesfield winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
69% The market62%
Us69%
Market62%

We make Macclesfield a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Macclesfield v Anstey Nomads2.40 – 0.96
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 SeptW1 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L0
The market · Macclesfield win62% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Macclesfield win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 69% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Macclesfield win69%62%+7
Draw18%20%−2
Anstey Nomads win13%18%−5
Over 2.5 goals65%63%+2
Both teams to score56%59%−3
Over 1.5 goals85%82%+3
Over 3.5 goals43%42%+1
Macclesfield or draw87%82%+5
Macclesfield clean sheet38%––
Anstey Nomads clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%
0123450 3.7 3.1 1 8.1 8.3 3.8 2 10.0 9.6 4.6 3 8.0 7.7 3.7 4 4.8 4.6 2.2 5 2.3 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Macclesfield down, Anstey Nomads across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

MACCLESFIELD

WDD2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

ANSTEY NOMADS

WWW4–0 · 2–1 · 3–2