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Leiston v Guiseley AFC

Leiston
0–3Full time
Guiseley AFC

FA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Victory Road

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Leiston 0–3 Guiseley AFC GUISELEY AFC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Guiseley AFC win43%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.494
The market’s Brier score0.357

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Guiseley AFC win at 43%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Guiseley AFC 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 32–26–43
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Leiston v Guiseley AFC
  4. 7′Little has changed for our model: Guiseley AFC 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–27–42
  5. 33′A goal for Guiseley AFC on 32′. 0–0 · 29–33–38
  6. 34′We said Guiseley AFC at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 10–20–71
  7. 34′⚽ GOAL · 32' Leiston 0–1 Guiseley AFC
  8. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Guiseley AFC win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
  9. 35′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
  10. 38′Guiseley AFC find the net on 37′. 0–1 · 9–20–71
  11. 39′We said Guiseley AFC at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  12. 39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Leiston 0–2 Guiseley AFC
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Guiseley AFC win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
  14. 42′A goal for Guiseley AFC on 40′. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  15. 43′We said Guiseley AFC at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
  16. 43′⚽ GOAL · 40' Leiston 0–3 Guiseley AFC
  17. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Guiseley AFC win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
  18. 44′A goal for Guiseley AFC on 41′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
  19. 45′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–98
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Leiston 0–3 Guiseley AFC
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Leiston 0–3 Guiseley AFC
  22. 60′Guiseley AFC find the net on 59′. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  23. 64′We said Guiseley AFC at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  24. 86′Leiston find the net on 85′. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  25. FTFULL TIME Leiston 0–3 Guiseley AFC
  26. FTLeiston 0–3 Guiseley AFC · Guiseley AFC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guiseley AFC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leiston 32%, draw 25%, Guiseley AFC 43%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Leiston v Guiseley AFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leiston win32%
Draw25%
Guiseley AFC win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

Round4th round qualifying

VenueVictory Road

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leiston

Guiseley AFC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guiseley afc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
43% The market51%
Us43%
Market51%

We make Guiseley AFC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Leiston v Guiseley AFC1.32 – 1.56
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 SeptW3 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L0
The market · Guiseley AFC win51% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Guiseley AFC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Leiston win32%25%+7
Draw25%24%+1
Guiseley AFC win43%51%−8
Over 2.5 goals55%60%−5
Both teams to score58%61%−3
Over 1.5 goals79%79%0
Over 3.5 goals32%39%−7
Leiston or draw57%49%+8
Leiston clean sheet21%––
Guiseley AFC clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%
0123450 6.0 8.4 6.9 3.6 1 7.0 11.9 9.0 4.7 2 4.9 7.6 5.9 3.1 3 2.1 3.3 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Leiston down, Guiseley AFC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

LEISTON

DWWW0–0 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

GUISELEY AFC

DWWW2–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–0