Hartlepool v Marine
HartlepoolMarineFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Victoria Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Hartlepool win at 51%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Hartlepool was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
- 2′KICK-OFF Hartlepool v Marine
- 8′Much as we predicted: Hartlepool was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
- 22′7 shots for Hartlepool, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 47–31–22
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hartlepool win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
- 42′9 shots for Hartlepool, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 40–39–21
- 45′We said Hartlepool at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
- 45′HALF-TIME Hartlepool 0–0 Marine
- 46′SECOND HALF Hartlepool 0–0 Marine
- 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Hartlepool win 38%)
- 55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–47–18
- 56′We said Hartlepool at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Hartlepool win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
- 64′We said Hartlepool at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
- 66′Hartlepool have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 28–57–15
- 70′We said Hartlepool at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
- 72′Marine score on 71′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–19–77
- 72′We said Hartlepool at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–19–77
- 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Hartlepool 0–1 Marine
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Hartlepool win: 51% at kick-off, 3% now
- 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Marine win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
- 78′Marine find the net on 77′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
- 78′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
- 78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Hartlepool 0–2 Marine
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Hartlepool win: 51% at kick-off, under 1% now
- FTFULL TIME Hartlepool 0–2 Marine
- FTHartlepool 0–2 Marine · Hartlepool win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassHartlepool are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Hartlepool 51%, draw 26%, Marine 22%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Hartlepool win51%Marine win22%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenueVictoria Park
Match timeline
All events
HartlepoolMINMarineEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Hartlepool
Marine
Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Hartlepool a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool win | 51% | 62% | −11 |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | +4 |
| Marine win | 22% | 16% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 57% | −12 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 53% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 78% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 37% | −13 |
| Hartlepool or draw | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Hartlepool clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Marine clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 19 Sept
HARTLEPOOL
No matches in our record yet.
MARINE