Harrogate Town v Bury
Harrogate TownBuryFA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · CNG Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Harrogate Town win at 57%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Harrogate Town 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–20
- 1′KICK-OFF Harrogate Town v Bury
- 13′We said Harrogate Town at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
- 13′Harrogate Town score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Harrogate Town 1–0 Bury
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Harrogate Town win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
- 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–5
- 45′HALF-TIME Harrogate Town 1–0 Bury
- 46′SECOND HALF Harrogate Town 1–0 Bury
- 65′We said Harrogate Town at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 68′Bury find the net on 68′. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–56–14
- 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Harrogate Town 1–1 Bury
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Harrogate Town win: 57% at kick-off, 30% now
- 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Harrogate Town win 86%)
- 69′We said Harrogate Town at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
- 69′Harrogate Town have had 17 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 29–57–14
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Harrogate Town win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
- 74′We said Harrogate Town at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–64–12
- 78′We said Harrogate Town at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Harrogate Town win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
- 82′We said Harrogate Town at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–7
- 86′We said Harrogate Town at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
- 88′We said Harrogate Town at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Harrogate Town win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Harrogate Town 2–1 Bury
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Harrogate Town win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
- 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Harrogate Town win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 89%)
- 89′A goal for Harrogate Town on 88′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
- 89′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Harrogate Town win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
- 94′Harrogate Town score on 90′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 94′⚽ GOAL · 90' Harrogate Town 3–1 Bury
- 95′We said Harrogate Town at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 95′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Harrogate Town 3–1 Bury
- FTHarrogate Town 3–1 Bury · Harrogate Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Harrogate Town are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Harrogate Town 57%, draw 23%, Bury 20%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off
Harrogate Town win57%Bury win20%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45
Round4th round qualifying
VenueCNG Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Harrogate TownMINBuryEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Harrogate Town
Bury
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Harrogate Town a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town win | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 0 |
| Bury win | 20% | 22% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Harrogate Town or draw | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Harrogate Town clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Bury clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2025/26Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
HARROGATE TOWN
BURY