Harborough Town v Spennymoor Town
Harborough TownSpennymoor TownFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Harborough Town win at 48%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Harborough Town 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
- 2′KICK-OFF Harborough Town v Spennymoor Town
- 8′A goal for Harborough Town on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–9
- 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Harborough Town 1–0 Spennymoor Town
- 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Harborough Town win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
- 9′We said Harborough Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Harborough Town win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Harborough Town 1–0 Spennymoor Town
- 46′SECOND HALF Harborough Town 1–0 Spennymoor Town
- 54′We said Harborough Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
- 69′We said Harborough Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 69′Spennymoor Town find the net on 69′. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 70′We said Harborough Town at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–62–15
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Harborough Town 1–1 Spennymoor Town
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Harborough Town win: 48% at kick-off, 23% now
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Harborough Town win 23%)
- 75′We said Harborough Town at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
- 76′A goal for Harborough Town on 75′. 1–1 · 18–70–12
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Harborough Town win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
- 77′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 89–10–1
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 75' Harborough Town 2–1 Spennymoor Town
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Harborough Town win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
- 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Harborough Town win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
- 78′We said Harborough Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
- 82′Harborough Town find the net on 82′. 2–1 · 92–7–0
- 83′We said Harborough Town at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 83′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Harborough Town 3–1 Spennymoor Town
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Harborough Town win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 93′A goal for Harborough Town on 85′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Harborough Town 3–1 Spennymoor Town
- FTHarborough Town 3–1 Spennymoor Town · Harborough Town win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassHarborough Town are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Harborough Town 48%, draw 27%, Spennymoor Town 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Harborough Town win48%Spennymoor Town win25%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
Match timeline
All events
Harborough TownMINSpennymoor TownEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Harborough Town
Spennymoor Town
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Harborough Town a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harborough Town win | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | +3 |
| Spennymoor Town win | 25% | 21% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 32% | −7 |
| Harborough Town or draw | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Harborough Town clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Spennymoor Town clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2022/23No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 19 Sept
HARBOROUGH TOWN
SPENNYMOOR TOWN