Gloucester City v Barrow
Gloucester CityBarrowFA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · New Meadow Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Barrow win at 59%.
- 91′A goal for Barrow on 64′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
- 91′We published Barrow at 59%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
- 91′Barrow score on 90′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Barrow win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
- 96′We published Barrow at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Gloucester City 0–2 Barrow
- FTFULL TIME Gloucester City 0–2 Barrow
- FTGloucester City 0–2 Barrow · Barrow win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Barrow are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Gloucester City 19%, draw 22%, Barrow 59%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off
Gloucester City win19%Barrow win59%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45
Round4th round qualifying
VenueNew Meadow Park
Match timeline
All events
Gloucester CityMINBarrowEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gloucester City
Barrow
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Barrow a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gloucester City win | 19% | 25% | −6 |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | −2 |
| Barrow win | 59% | 51% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Gloucester City or draw | 41% | 49% | −8 |
| Gloucester City clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
| Barrow clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
GLOUCESTER CITY
BARROW