Forest Green v Chesham United
Forest GreenChesham UnitedFA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · The New Lawn
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Forest Green win at 70%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Forest Green 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–12
- 1′KICK-OFF Forest Green v Chesham United
- 2′Forest Green find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–8–4
- 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Forest Green 1–0 Chesham United
- 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Forest Green win: 70% at kick-off, 88% now
- 4′We said Forest Green at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–4
- 12′A goal for Forest Green on 12′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Forest Green 2–0 Chesham United
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Forest Green win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
- 13′We said Forest Green at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 15′A goal for Forest Green on 13′. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 16′A goal for Forest Green on 13′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 17′A goal for Forest Green on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 22′Forest Green score on 22′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Forest Green 3–0 Chesham United
- 23′Forest Green score on 23′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 36′We said Forest Green at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Forest Green win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Forest Green 3–0 Chesham United
- 46′SECOND HALF Forest Green 3–0 Chesham United
- 57′Forest Green find the net on 57′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 57′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Forest Green 4–0 Chesham United
- 78′A goal for Forest Green on 78′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Forest Green 5–0 Chesham United
- 79′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Forest Green 5–0 Chesham United
- FTForest Green 5–0 Chesham United · Forest Green win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Forest Green are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Forest Green 70%, draw 18%, Chesham United 12%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off
Forest Green win70%Chesham United win12%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45
Round4th round qualifying
VenueThe New Lawn
Match timeline
All events
Forest GreenMINChesham UnitedEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Forest Green
Chesham United
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Forest Green a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 70% | 77% | −7 |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | +3 |
| Chesham United win | 12% | 8% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Forest Green or draw | 88% | 92% | −4 |
| Forest Green clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
| Chesham United clean sheet | 10% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 19 Sept
FOREST GREEN
CHESHAM UNITED