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Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Cup › Eastleigh v Brentwood Town

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Eastleigh v Brentwood Town

Eastleigh
3–2Full time
Brentwood Town

FA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Silverlake Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08
Eastleigh 3–2 Brentwood Town EASTLEIGH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Eastleigh win67%
The market said77%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.169
The market’s Brier score0.085

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eastleigh are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eastleigh 67%, draw 19%, Brentwood Town 15%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Eastleigh v Brentwood TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Eastleigh win67%
Draw19%
Brentwood Town win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

Round4th round qualifying

VenueSilverlake Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eastleigh

Brentwood Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English National League

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eastleigh winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off
67% The market77%
Us67%
Market77%

We make Eastleigh a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Eastleigh v Brentwood Town2.36 – 1.04
The market · Eastleigh win77% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Eastleigh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Eastleigh win67%77%−10
Draw19%15%+4
Brentwood Town win15%8%+7
Over 2.5 goals66%63%+3
Both teams to score59%46%+13
Over 1.5 goals86%82%+4
Over 3.5 goals44%42%+2
Eastleigh or draw85%92%−7
Eastleigh clean sheet35%––
Brentwood Town clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%
0123450 3.6 3.2 1 7.6 8.5 4.2 2 9.3 9.7 5.0 3 7.3 7.6 3.9 4 4.3 4.5 2.3 5 2.0 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Eastleigh down, Brentwood Town across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

EASTLEIGH

No matches in our record yet.

BRENTWOOD TOWN

DWWW0–0 · 4–2 · 3–2 · 3–1