Dover v Dorking Wanderers

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dorking Wanderers win at 50%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Dover v Dorking Wanderers
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Dorking Wanderers was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 28–22–50
4. 9′Much as we predicted: Dorking Wanderers was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 28–23–49
5. 12′A goal for Dover on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 52–23–26
6. 12′We said Dorking Wanderers at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 52–23–26
7. 12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Dover 1–0 Dorking Wanderers
8. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Dorking Wanderers win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
9. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Dover win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Dorking Wanderers win 26%)
10. 16′A goal for Dorking Wanderers on 15′. 1–0 · 52–23–25
11. 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Dover 1–1 Dorking Wanderers
12. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Dorking Wanderers win: 50% at kick-off, 48% now
13. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Dorking Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Dover win 28%)
14. 20′Dover find the net on 18′. 2–1. 2–1 · 53–23–23
15. 20′We said Dorking Wanderers at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 2–1 · 53–23–23
16. 20′⚽ GOAL · 18' Dover 2–1 Dorking Wanderers
17. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Dorking Wanderers win: 50% at kick-off, 23% now
18. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Dover win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Dorking Wanderers win 23%)
19. 23′Dover find the net on 19′. 2–1. 2–1 · 54–24–23
20. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Dorking Wanderers win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
21. 33′We said Dorking Wanderers at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 56–25–19
22. 35′PENALTY MISSED · 34' Dorking Wanderers
23. 42′Dorking Wanderers have had 10 attempts to 4 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 59–25–16
24. 45′13 shots for Dorking Wanderers, 4 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 60–25–15
25. 45′HALF-TIME Dover 2–1 Dorking Wanderers
26. 46′SECOND HALF Dover 2–1 Dorking Wanderers
27. 47′We said Dorking Wanderers at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 60–25–14
28. 48′A goal for Dover on 47′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 86–10–4
29. 48′We said Dorking Wanderers at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–1 · 86–10–4
30. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Dover 3–1 Dorking Wanderers
31. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Dorking Wanderers win: 50% at kick-off, 4% now
32. 49′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 86–10–4
33. 51′A goal for Dover on 48′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 87–10–3
34. 64′Dorking Wanderers find the net on 63′. 3–1 · 92–6–1
35. 64′We said Dorking Wanderers at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 3–2 · 69–24–8
36. 64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Dover 3–2 Dorking Wanderers
37. 65′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 69–23–7
38. 66′19 shots for Dorking Wanderers, 7 the other way, and they still trail 3–2. 3–2 · 70–23–7
39. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Dorking Wanderers win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
40. 87′Dorking Wanderers have had 24 attempts to 11 and it is still 3–2. 3–2 · 91–8–0
41. FTFULL TIME Dover 3–2 Dorking Wanderers
42. FTDover 3–2 Dorking Wanderers · Dorking Wanderers win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.