Chorley v Worcester City
ChorleyWorcester CityFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Chorley win at 62%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Chorley 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–22–16
- 1′KICK-OFF Chorley v Worcester City
- 8′Little has changed for our model: Chorley 62% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
- 21′8 shots for Worcester City, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 57–27–17
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Chorley win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
- 39′We said Chorley at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 50–33–17
- 41′We said Chorley at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–17
- 42′A goal for Chorley on 40′. 0–0 · 49–35–17
- 43′We said Chorley at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
- 43′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–3
- 43′⚽ GOAL · 40' Chorley 1–0 Worcester City
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Chorley win: 62% at kick-off, 84% now
- 44′Chorley find the net on 41′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
- 45′HALF-TIME Chorley 1–0 Worcester City
- 46′SECOND HALF Chorley 1–0 Worcester City
- 55′We said Chorley at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 66′Worcester City have had 15 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
- 75′We said Chorley at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Chorley win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
- 84′We said Chorley at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 86′16 shots for Worcester City, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
- 93′Worcester City find the net on 90′. 1–0 · 99–1–0
- 94′We said Chorley at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
- 94′⚽ GOAL · 90' Chorley 1–1 Worcester City
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Chorley win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
- 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Chorley win 2%)
- FTFULL TIME Chorley 1–1 Worcester City
- FTChorley 1–1 Worcester City · Chorley win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChorley are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Chorley 62%, draw 22%, Worcester City 16%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Chorley win62%Worcester City win16%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenueThe Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium
Match timeline
All events
ChorleyMINWorcester CityEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Chorley
Worcester City
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Chorley a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 60%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley win | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | −1 |
| Worcester City win | 16% | 18% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 37% | −6 |
| Chorley or draw | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Chorley clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
| Worcester City clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2024/25No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
CHORLEY
WORCESTER CITY