Chesham United v Forest Green
Chesham UnitedForest GreenFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · The Meadow
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Forest Green win at 57%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Forest Green was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 21–22–57
- 1′KICK-OFF Chesham United v Forest Green
- 8′Much as we predicted: Forest Green was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 21–24–56
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Forest Green win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
- 45′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 20–35–45
- 45′HALF-TIME Chesham United 0–0 Forest Green
- 46′SECOND HALF Chesham United 0–0 Forest Green
- 47′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 20–36–44
- 55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 19–41–40
- 57′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 18–42–39
- 58′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 18–43–38
- 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Forest Green win 38%)
- 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Forest Green win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
- 64′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 17–49–34
- 70′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 15–56–29
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Forest Green win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
- 75′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 13–63–24
- 80′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 9–73–18
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Forest Green win: 57% at kick-off, 16% now
- 83′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 7–80–13
- 87′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–86–9
- 87′9 shots for Forest Green, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 5–86–9
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Forest Green win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
- 92′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 2–93–4
- FTFULL TIME Chesham United 0–0 Forest Green
- FTChesham United 0–0 Forest Green · Forest Green win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassForest Green are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Chesham United 21%, draw 22%, Forest Green 57%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Chesham United win21%Forest Green win57%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenueThe Meadow
Match timeline
All events
Chesham UnitedMINForest GreenEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Chesham United
Forest Green
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South
Last match: 10 Oct · the English National League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Forest Green a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesham United win | 21% | 23% | −2 |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | −2 |
| Forest Green win | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 63% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 42% | −5 |
| Chesham United or draw | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Chesham United clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
| Forest Green clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 19 Sept
CHESHAM UNITED
FOREST GREEN
No matches in our record yet.