Carlisle v Tamworth
CarlisleTamworthFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Brunton Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Carlisle win at 61%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Carlisle 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
- 1′KICK-OFF Carlisle v Tamworth
- 7′A goal for Carlisle on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
- 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Carlisle 1–0 Tamworth
- 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Carlisle win: 61% at kick-off, 81% now
- 8′We said Carlisle at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–7
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
- 45′We said Carlisle at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 45′Carlisle score on 45′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Carlisle 2–0 Tamworth
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Carlisle win: 61% at kick-off, 95% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Carlisle 2–0 Tamworth
- 46′SECOND HALF Carlisle 2–0 Tamworth
- 49′Tamworth find the net on 48′. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–5
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Carlisle 2–1 Tamworth
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Carlisle win: 61% at kick-off, 81% now
- 69′We said Carlisle at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 80′We said Carlisle at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Carlisle win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
- FTFULL TIME Carlisle 2–1 Tamworth
- FTCarlisle 2–1 Tamworth · Carlisle win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassCarlisle are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Carlisle 61%, draw 20%, Tamworth 19%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Carlisle win61%Tamworth win19%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenueBrunton Park
Match timeline
All events
CarlisleMINTamworthEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Carlisle
Tamworth
Last match: 10 Oct · the English National League
Last match: 10 Oct · the English National League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Carlisle a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | −2 |
| Tamworth win | 19% | 17% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 42% | +4 |
| Carlisle or draw | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Carlisle clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Tamworth clean sheet | 11% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season
CARLISLE
No matches in our record yet.
TAMWORTH
No matches in our record yet.