Bury v Harrogate Town
BuryHarrogate TownFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Gigg Lane
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Harrogate Town win at 45%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Harrogate Town was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
- 1′KICK-OFF Bury v Harrogate Town
- 39′Harrogate Town find the net on 39′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
- 39′We published Harrogate Town at 45%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 7–19–74
- 39′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
- 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Bury 0–1 Harrogate Town
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Harrogate Town win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
- 41′A goal for Bury on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–37–37
- 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Bury 1–1 Harrogate Town
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Harrogate Town win: 45% at kick-off, 37% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Bury 1–1 Harrogate Town
- 46′SECOND HALF Bury 1–1 Harrogate Town
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Harrogate Town win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Harrogate Town win 35%)
- 52′We said Harrogate Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 24–43–33
- 61′We said Harrogate Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 21–50–29
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Harrogate Town win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
- 69′We said Harrogate Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
- 75′We said Harrogate Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 14–67–19
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Harrogate Town win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 80′We said Harrogate Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 11–76–14
- 84′We said Harrogate Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Harrogate Town win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
- 91′We said Harrogate Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
- 129′A goal for Bury on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–2
- 129′We said Harrogate Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 1–97–2
- FTFULL TIME Bury 1–1 Harrogate Town
- FTBury 1–1 Harrogate Town · Harrogate Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassHarrogate Town are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Bury 29%, draw 26%, Harrogate Town 45%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Bury win29%Harrogate Town win45%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30
Round4th round qualifying
VenueGigg Lane
Match timeline
All events
BuryMINHarrogate TownEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Bury
Harrogate Town
Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern
Last match: 10 Oct · the English National League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Harrogate Town a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bury win | 29% | 26% | +3 |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | +2 |
| Harrogate Town win | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 63% | −12 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 64% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 42% | −13 |
| Bury or draw | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Bury clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
| Harrogate Town clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2025/26No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
BURY
HARROGATE TOWN
No matches in our record yet.