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Model 1.2

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Boston United v Scunthorpe

Boston United
1–3Full time
Scunthorpe

FA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Boston Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Boston United 1–3 Scunthorpe BOSTON UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Boston United win40%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.630
The market’s Brier score0.693

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Boston United win at 40%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Boston United v Scunthorpe
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Boston United 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
  4. 7′Little has changed for our model: Boston United 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–35
  5. 13′We said Boston United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–21–62
  6. 13′Scunthorpe score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
  7. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Boston United 0–1 Scunthorpe
  8. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Boston United win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
  9. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Scunthorpe win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Boston United win 17%)
  10. 28′We said Boston United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–64
  12. 45′We said Boston United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  13. 45′Scunthorpe find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Boston United win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  15. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Boston United 0–2 Scunthorpe
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Boston United 0–2 Scunthorpe
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Boston United 0–2 Scunthorpe
  18. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Boston United win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
  19. 70′A goal for Scunthorpe on 69′. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  20. 71′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  21. 71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Boston United 0–3 Scunthorpe
  22. 73′A goal for Scunthorpe on 70′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  23. 87′Boston United find the net on 87′. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  24. 88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  25. 88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Boston United 1–3 Scunthorpe
  26. FTFULL TIME Boston United 1–3 Scunthorpe
  27. FTBoston United 1–3 Scunthorpe · Boston United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Boston United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Boston United 40%, draw 25%, Scunthorpe 36%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Boston United v ScunthorpeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Boston United win40%
Draw25%
Scunthorpe win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

Round4th round qualifying

VenueBoston Community Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boston United

Scunthorpe

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boston united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market41%
Us40%
Market41%

We make Boston United a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Boston United v Scunthorpe1.52 – 1.43
The market · Boston United win41% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Boston United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Boston United win40%41%−1
Draw25%26%−1
Scunthorpe win36%33%+3
Over 2.5 goals56%55%+1
Both teams to score59%58%+1
Over 1.5 goals79%77%+2
Over 3.5 goals34%33%+1
Boston United or draw64%67%−3
Boston United clean sheet24%––
Scunthorpe clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 5.6 7.4 5.4 2.6 1 7.9 11.4 8.0 3.8 2 6.0 8.4 6.0 2.9 3 3.1 4.3 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Boston United down, Scunthorpe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsSCU 3–6 BOS · BOS 1–1 SCU · SCU 0–0 BOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

BOSTON UNITED

No matches in our record yet.

SCUNTHORPE

No matches in our record yet.