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Model 1.2

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Boreham Wood v Woking

Boreham Wood
3–2Full time
Woking

FA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Meadow Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Boreham Wood 3–2 Woking BOREHAM WOOD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Boreham Wood win57%
The market said63%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.274
The market’s Brier score0.203

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Boreham Wood win at 57%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Boreham Wood v Woking
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Boreham Wood was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–21
  4. 9′Much as we predicted: Boreham Wood was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Boreham Wood 0–1 Woking
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 29% now
  7. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Woking win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Boreham Wood win 29%)
  8. 19′A goal for Woking on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–25–47
  9. 19′We said Boreham Wood at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–25–47
  10. 21′A goal for Woking on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–25–47
  11. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  12. 27′Boreham Wood score on 26′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 51–28–21
  13. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Boreham Wood 1–1 Woking
  14. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 51% now
  15. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Boreham Wood win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Woking win 21%)
  16. 38′Boreham Wood find the net on 38′. 1–1 · 48–32–21
  17. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  18. 40′We published Boreham Wood at 57%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–15–5
  19. 40′⚽ GOAL · 38' Boreham Wood 2–1 Woking
  20. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
  21. 43′Boreham Wood find the net on 37′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–5
  22. 45′We said Boreham Wood at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 2–2 · 45–35–20
  23. 45′11 shots for Boreham Wood, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 45–35–20
  24. 45′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 45–35–20
  25. 45′HALF-TIME Boreham Wood 2–2 Woking
  26. 46′SECOND HALF Boreham Wood 2–2 Woking
  27. 52′We said Boreham Wood at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 2–2 · 42–39–19
  28. 52′⚽ GOAL · 45+7' Boreham Wood 2–2 Woking
  29. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 42% now
  30. 53′A goal for Woking on 45′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 41–40–19
  31. 57′We said Boreham Wood at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–43–18
  32. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Boreham Wood win 38%)
  33. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
  34. 64′We said Boreham Wood at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–49–17
  35. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  36. 75′We said Boreham Wood at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–64–12
  37. 79′We said Boreham Wood at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–71–10
  38. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 16% now
  39. 83′We said Boreham Wood at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–80–7
  40. 85′Boreham Wood find the net on 84′. 2–2 · 11–83–6
  41. 86′17 shots for Boreham Wood, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 10–85–5
  42. 87′We published Boreham Wood at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  43. 87′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  44. 87′⚽ GOAL · 84' Boreham Wood 3–2 Woking
  45. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 95% now
  46. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Boreham Wood win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
  47. 88′Boreham Wood score on 85′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
  48. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Boreham Wood win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
  49. FTFULL TIME Boreham Wood 3–2 Woking
  50. FTBoreham Wood 3–2 Woking · Boreham Wood win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boreham Wood are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boreham Wood 57%, draw 22%, Woking 21%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Boreham Wood v WokingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Boreham Wood win57%
Draw22%
Woking win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

Round4th round qualifying

VenueMeadow Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boreham Wood

Woking

8Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · the English National League

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boreham wood winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
57% The market63%
Us57%
Market63%

We make Boreham Wood a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Boreham Wood v Woking1.99 – 1.11
The market · Boreham Wood win63% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Boreham Wood win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Boreham Wood win57%63%−6
Draw22%22%0
Woking win21%15%+6
Over 2.5 goals59%64%−5
Both teams to score57%59%−2
Over 1.5 goals81%83%−2
Over 3.5 goals37%45%−8
Boreham Wood or draw79%85%−6
Boreham Wood clean sheet33%––
Woking clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%
0123450 4.9 5.1 2.9 1 9.0 10.1 5.5 2.0 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 5.9 6.3 3.5 4 3.0 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Boreham Wood down, Woking across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored3 of 8
Last meetingsWOK 2–2 BOR · BOR 1–0 WOK · WOK 0–1 BOR · BOR 4–2 WOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

BOREHAM WOOD

No matches in our record yet.

WOKING

No matches in our record yet.