Bedford Town v Cray Wanderers
Bedford TownCray WanderersFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · The New Eyrie
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Bedford Town win at 51%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Bedford Town was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–26
- 2′KICK-OFF Bedford Town v Cray Wanderers
- 8′Much as we predicted: Bedford Town was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–26
- 29′Bedford Town find the net on 29′. 0–0 · 45–29–25
- 36′Bedford Town find the net on 35′. 0–0 · 44–32–25
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Bedford Town win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Bedford Town 0–0 Cray Wanderers
- 46′SECOND HALF Bedford Town 0–0 Cray Wanderers
- 49′We said Bedford Town at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–37–23
- 55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–41–22
- 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Bedford Town win 36%)
- 59′We said Bedford Town at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–21
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Bedford Town win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
- 66′Cray Wanderers have had 14 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 30–51–19
- 67′We said Bedford Town at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–18
- 73′We said Bedford Town at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Bedford Town win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
- 78′We said Bedford Town at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
- 82′We said Bedford Town at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Bedford Town win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
- 85′Cray Wanderers score on 85′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–9–90
- 85′We said Bedford Town at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
- 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bedford Town 0–1 Cray Wanderers
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Bedford Town win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
- 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Cray Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
- 86′Cray Wanderers find the net on 84′. 0–0 · 9–85–6
- 86′We said Bedford Town at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
- 86′GOAL DISALLOWED · 86' Cray Wanderers
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Bedford Town win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
- 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Cray Wanderers win 6%)
- 87′Cray Wanderers have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 8–86–6
- FTFULL TIME Bedford Town 0–0 Cray Wanderers
- FTBedford Town 0–0 Cray Wanderers · Bedford Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassBedford Town are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Bedford Town 51%, draw 23%, Cray Wanderers 26%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Bedford Town win51%Cray Wanderers win26%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenueThe New Eyrie
Match timeline
All events
Bedford TownMINCray WanderersEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Bedford Town
Cray Wanderers
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North
Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Bedford Town a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford Town win | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Cray Wanderers win | 26% | 24% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Bedford Town or draw | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Bedford Town clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Cray Wanderers clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2022/23No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
BEDFORD TOWN
CRAY WANDERERS