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Model 1.2

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Barrow v Gloucester City

Barrow
0–0Full time
Gloucester City

FA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Holker Street

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
Barrow 0–0 Gloucester City BARROW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Barrow win75%
The market said67%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.294
The market’s Brier score1.077

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barrow are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barrow 75%, draw 15%, Gloucester City 9%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Barrow v Gloucester CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barrow win75%
Draw15%
Gloucester City win9%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

Round4th round qualifying

VenueHolker Street

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barrow

Gloucester City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the English National League

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barrow winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
75% The market67%
Us75%
Market67%

We make Barrow a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Barrow v Gloucester City2.60 – 0.81
The market · Barrow win67% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Barrow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Barrow win75%67%+8
Draw15%21%−6
Gloucester City win9%12%−3
Over 2.5 goals66%59%+7
Both teams to score52%52%0
Over 1.5 goals86%80%+6
Over 3.5 goals44%38%+6
Barrow or draw91%88%+3
Barrow clean sheet44%––
Gloucester City clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%
0123450 3.5 2.5 1 8.3 7.2 2.8 2 11.1 9.1 3.7 3 9.7 7.8 3.2 4 6.3 5.1 2.1 5 3.3 2.6
under 2% 5% 12%+Barrow down, Gloucester City across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

BARROW

No matches in our record yet.

GLOUCESTER CITY

DWWW1–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–1