Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › FA Cup › Anstey Nomads v Macclesfield

Back
England flag

Anstey Nomads v Macclesfield

Anstey Nomads
0–3Full time
Macclesfield

FA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Cropston Road

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Anstey Nomads 0–3 Macclesfield MACCLESFIELD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Macclesfield win53%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.333
The market’s Brier score0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Macclesfield win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Macclesfield was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 24–23–53
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Anstey Nomads v Macclesfield
  4. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Macclesfield win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Anstey Nomads 0–0 Macclesfield
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Anstey Nomads 0–0 Macclesfield
  7. 47′We said Macclesfield at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 22–37–41
  8. 52′We said Macclesfield at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 21–39–39
  9. 55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–42–38
  10. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Macclesfield win 40%)
  11. 58′We published Macclesfield at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
  12. 58′Macclesfield find the net on 57′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–16–80
  13. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Anstey Nomads 0–1 Macclesfield
  14. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Macclesfield win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
  15. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Macclesfield win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 43%)
  16. 67′We published Macclesfield at 53%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  17. 67′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  18. 67′A goal for Macclesfield on 66′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  19. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Anstey Nomads 0–2 Macclesfield
  20. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Macclesfield win: 53% at kick-off, 98% now
  21. 72′Macclesfield score on 71′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  22. 72′We published Macclesfield at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  23. 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Anstey Nomads 0–3 Macclesfield
  24. FTFULL TIME Anstey Nomads 0–3 Macclesfield
  25. FTAnstey Nomads 0–3 Macclesfield · Macclesfield win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Macclesfield are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anstey Nomads 24%, draw 23%, Macclesfield 53%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Anstey Nomads v MacclesfieldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

Anstey Nomads win24%
Draw23%
Macclesfield win53%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

Round4th round qualifying

VenueCropston Road

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anstey Nomads

Macclesfield

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · macclesfield winFirst published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off
53% The market49%
Us53%
Market49%

We make Macclesfield a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Anstey Nomads v Macclesfield1.20 – 1.88
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 SeptW3 D1 L0 · W1 D3 L0
The market · Macclesfield win49% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 09:3220 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Macclesfield win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Anstey Nomads win24%26%−2
Draw23%24%−1
Macclesfield win53%49%+4
Over 2.5 goals59%56%+3
Both teams to score60%58%+2
Over 1.5 goals82%77%+5
Over 3.5 goals37%35%+2
Anstey Nomads or draw47%51%−4
Anstey Nomads clean sheet15%––
Macclesfield clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 4.9 8.3 8.1 5.1 2.4 1 5.2 10.7 9.7 6.1 2.9 2 3.3 6.2 5.8 3.7 3 2.5 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Anstey Nomads down, Macclesfield across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsMAC 1–1 ANS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

ANSTEY NOMADS

WWWD4–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

MACCLESFIELD

WDDD2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1