Alvechurch v Spalding United prediction · FA Cup

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Alvechurch 4–0 Spalding United SPALDING UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spalding United win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.711

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.696

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 1 alert

0′Before kick-off: we said Spalding United win at 43%.
91′Alvechurch score on 58′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′We said Spalding United at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
92′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Alvechurch 4–0 Spalding United
FTAlvechurch 4–0 Spalding United · Spalding United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spalding United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alvechurch 32%, draw 25%, Spalding United 43%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Alvechurch v Spalding UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

Alvechurch win32%

Draw25%

Spalding United win43%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

Round4th round qualifying

VenueLye Meadow

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alvechurch

Spalding United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spalding united winFirst published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Spalding United a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alvechurch v Spalding United~~1.32 – 1.58

~~Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L0

~~The market · Spalding United win~~41% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spalding United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alvechurch win	32%	32%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Spalding United win	43%	41%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	53%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	32%	+1
Alvechurch or draw	57%	59%	−2
Alvechurch clean sheet	21%	–	–
Spalding United clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 8.5 6.9 3.6 1 7.1 11.5 8.8 4.6 2 4.9 7.4 5.7 3.0 3 2.2 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alvechurch down, Spalding United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,963 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alvechurch at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Spalding United away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Alvechurch, 1.58 for Spalding United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SPA 2–2 ALV · SPA 3–0 ALV · ALV 0–2 SPA · SPA 0–0 ALV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept

ALVECHURCH

WWWD2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

SPALDING UNITED

WDWD2–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–2

Alvechurch v Spalding United

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Alvechurch

Spalding United

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept