Altrincham v United of Manchester
AltrinchamUnited of ManchesterFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Moss Lane
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Altrincham win at 70%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Altrincham was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–18–12
- 2′KICK-OFF Altrincham v United of Manchester
- 8′Much as we predicted: Altrincham was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–20–12
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Altrincham win: 70% at kick-off, 60% now
- 37′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–28–14
- 42′Altrincham have had 8 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 56–30–14
- 45′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–32–14
- 45′HALF-TIME Altrincham 0–0 United of Manchester
- 46′SECOND HALF Altrincham 0–0 United of Manchester
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Altrincham win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
- 54′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–13
- 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 48–38–13
- 61′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–44–13
- 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Altrincham win 41%)
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Altrincham win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
- 66′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–49–12
- 66′Altrincham have had 18 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 39–49–12
- 67′Altrincham find the net on 67′. 0–0 · 38–50–12
- 71′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–56–11
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Altrincham win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
- 75′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–62–9
- 78′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–68–8
- 81′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–74–7
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Altrincham win: 70% at kick-off, 19% now
- 84′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–81–5
- 86′21 shots for Altrincham, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 12–84–4
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Altrincham win: 70% at kick-off, 10% now
- 89′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–89–3
- 93′We said Altrincham at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–1
- FTFULL TIME Altrincham 0–0 United of Manchester
- FTAltrincham 0–0 United of Manchester · Altrincham win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAltrincham are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Altrincham 70%, draw 18%, United of Manchester 12%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Altrincham win70%United of Manchester win12%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenueMoss Lane
Match timeline
All events
AltrinchamMINUnited of ManchesterEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Altrincham
United of Manchester
Last match: 10 Oct · the English National League
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Altrincham a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham win | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | −1 |
| United of Manchester win | 12% | 13% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Altrincham or draw | 88% | 87% | +1 |
| Altrincham clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| United of Manchester clean sheet | 10% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
ALTRINCHAM
No matches in our record yet.
UNITED OF MANCHESTER