AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Morecambe
AFC Rushden & DiamondsMorecambeFA Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Hayden Road
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Morecambe win at 78%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Morecambe was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 78% now. 0–0 · 8–14–78
- 1′KICK-OFF AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Morecambe
- 10′Much as we predicted: Morecambe was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 9–16–76
- 13′We published Morecambe at 78%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–1 · 2–6–91
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' AFC Rushden & Diamonds 0–1 Morecambe
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Morecambe win: 78% at kick-off, 91% now
- 14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Morecambe
- 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Morecambe win: 78% at kick-off, 75% now
- 21′AFC Rushden & Diamonds find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 28–25–47
- 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1–0 Morecambe
- 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Morecambe win: 78% at kick-off, 47% now
- 22′We said Morecambe at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–0 · 28–25–47
- 25′A goal for AFC Rushden & Diamonds on 25′. 1–0 · 29–26–45
- 25′We said Morecambe at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 2–0 · 55–22–23
- 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2–0 Morecambe
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Morecambe win: 78% at kick-off, 23% now
- 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' AFC Rushden & Diamonds win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Morecambe win 23%)
- 32′We said Morecambe at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–0 · 59–21–19
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Morecambe win: 78% at kick-off, 18% now
- 41′We said Morecambe at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–0 · 66–20–14
- 41′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 66–20–14
- 45′HALF-TIME AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2–0 Morecambe
- 46′SECOND HALF AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2–0 Morecambe
- 50′We said Morecambe at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 2–1 · 41–31–28
- 50′Morecambe score on 50′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 41–31–28
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2–1 Morecambe
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Morecambe win: 78% at kick-off, 28% now
- 51′Morecambe score on 49′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 42–31–27
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Morecambe win: 78% at kick-off, 18% now
- 72′We said Morecambe at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 62–28–9
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Morecambe win: 78% at kick-off, 8% now
- 79′We said Morecambe at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 74–22–4
- FTFULL TIME AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2–1 Morecambe
- FTAFC Rushden & Diamonds 2–1 Morecambe · Morecambe win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassMorecambe are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: AFC Rushden & Diamonds 8%, draw 14%, Morecambe 78%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
AFC Rushden & Diamonds win8%Morecambe win78%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
Round4th round qualifying
VenueHayden Road
Match timeline
All events
AFC Rushden & DiamondsMINMorecambeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Morecambe
Last match: 3 Oct · the English FA Cup
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - North
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Morecambe a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 23 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds win | 8% | 22% | −14 |
| Draw | 14% | 23% | −9 |
| Morecambe win | 78% | 55% | +23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 61% | +8 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 60% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 80% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 40% | +7 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds or draw | 22% | 45% | −23 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds clean sheet | 6% | – | – |
| Morecambe clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2022/23No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 5 Sept
AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS
MORECAMBE