Wrexham v West Brom prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Wrexham 1–2 West Brom WREXHAM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wrexham win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.727

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wrexham win at 42%.
0′Much as we predicted: Wrexham was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Wrexham v West Brom
38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Rabby Nzingoula · West Brom
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Wrexham win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Wrexham 0–0 West Brom
45′SECOND HALF Wrexham 0–0 West Brom
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Wrexham win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
53′We said Wrexham at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–46–24
55′We said Wrexham at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–23
56′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–48–23
64′64′ and it is 1–0: Kieffer Moore on the scoresheet for Wrexham. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Wrexham 0–0 West Brom · Kieffer Moore
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Wrexham 1–0 West Brom · Kieffer Moore
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Wrexham win: 42% at kick-off, 80% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Wrexham win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
65′We published Wrexham at 42%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–17–3
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Wrexham win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Wrexham · On: Sam Smith · Off: Kieffer Moore Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Wrexham · On: Danny Imray · Off: Issa Kabore Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Wrexham · On: Lewis O'Brien · Off: Oliver Rathbone Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' West Brom · On: J. Morgan · Off: Harry Whitwell Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' West Brom · On: Aune Heggebo · Off: Barney Stewart Corrected
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Wrexham 1–1 West Brom
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' West Brom · On: Nathaniel Phillips · Off: Chris Mepham Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Zak Vyner · Wrexham
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' West Brom · On: Ousmane·Diakite · Off: Toby Collyer Corrected
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Wrexham 1–2 West Brom · Isaac Price
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Wrexham · On: B. Cadamarteri · Off: Zak Vyner Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Wrexham · On: Ryan·Longman · Off: Jacques Ekomié Corrected
93′Aune Heggebo scores for West Brom on 84′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Wrexham win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' West Brom win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Wrexham win 0%)
95′We said Wrexham at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–2 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Wrexham 1–2 West Brom
FTWrexham 1–2 West Brom · Wrexham win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Wrexham win42%

Draw27%

West Brom win31%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueRacecourse Ground

RefereeJames Bell

Line-ups

Wrexham

5-3-2

West Brom

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Wrexham

West Brom

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

New Josh Windass update emerges ahead of Wrexham v West BromFootball League World · 12 hours ago · Wrexham, West Brom, Derby

Martyn Waghorn reacts in 3 words to what Sammie Szmodics did for Derby v WrexhamFootball League World · 1 day ago · Derby, Wrexham

Cardiff City laughed at £8m West Brom deal - look where he is nowFootball League World · 2 days ago · Cardiff, West Brom

He played for Birmingham City and West Brom – now he owns a building businessFootball League World · 2 days ago · Birmingham, West Brom

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wrexham

5-3-2

22 A. Patterson

12 I. Kabore

26 Z. Vyner

5 D. Hyam

2 C. Doyle

3 J. Ekomie

15 G. Dobson

8 B. Whiteman

20 O. Rathbone

19 K. Moore

17 C. O'Hare

Coach · Phil Parkinson

Substitutes

21 · D. Ward

6 · J. Worrall

30 · D. Imray

34 · A. James

27 · L. O'Brien

47 · R. Longman

11 · B. Cadamarteri

28 · S. Smith

50 · S. Chesworth

West Brom

Formation not confirmed

1 M. O'Leary

18 B. Pereira

2 C. Mepham

6 G. Campbell

4 C. Styles

29 H. Whitwell

8 J. Molumby

15 T. Collyer

21 I. Price

20 R. Nzingoula

9 B. Stewart

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · M. Ingram

3 · N. Phillips

22 · C. Townsend

17 · O. Diakite

35 · M. Crowther

7 · F. Myhre

19 · A. Heggebo

23 · T. Bany

11 · J. Morgan

Our number · wrexham winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

42% The market42%

Us42%

~~Market~~42%

We make Wrexham a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wrexham win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. The market has gone from 39% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wrexham win	42%	42%	0
Draw	27%	29%	−1
West Brom win	31%	29%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%	0
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	26%	−2
Wrexham or draw	69%	71%	−2
Wrexham clean sheet	33%	–	–
West Brom clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.8 9.1 5.3 2.0 1 11.0 13.0 7.1 2.7 2 7.7 8.6 4.8 3 3.5 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wrexham down, West Brom across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,892 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wrexham at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). West Brom away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Wrexham, 1.13 for West Brom. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WES 2–2 WRE · WRE 2–3 WES

Form · last six in Championship

WREXHAM

WDDLWD3–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 1–1

WEST BROM

DWWDLL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	Southampton	9	+10	17
4	West Ham	9	+11	16
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	−2	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4