Wrexham v Preston prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Wrexham 4–1 Preston WREXHAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wrexham win~~51%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.354

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wrexham win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Wrexham v Preston
2′Much as we predicted: Wrexham was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
7′Much as we predicted: Wrexham was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Andrija Vukčević · Preston
23′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Benjamin Whiteman · Wrexham
32′We published Wrexham at 51%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–7
32′Wrexham ahead on 31′ through Joe Worrall. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–7
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Wrexham 1–0 Preston
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Wrexham win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
38′Alfie Devine scores for Preston on 36′. 1–0 · 77–17–6
38′7 shots for Wrexham, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 43–35–23
38′⚽ GOAL · 36' Wrexham 1–1 Preston · Alfie Devine
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Wrexham win: 51% at kick-off, 43% now
42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 78–17–5
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Wrexham win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Wrexham 2–1 Preston
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Wrexham win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
44′42′: Benjamin Whiteman on the scoresheet for Wrexham, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
45′HALF-TIME Wrexham 2–1 Preston
45′SECOND HALF Wrexham 2–1 Preston
53′We published Wrexham at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Preston · On: Brad Potts · Off: Liam Lindsay
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Wrexham win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
60′We published Wrexham at 51%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0
60′Wrexham ahead on 59′ through Sam Smith. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Wrexham 3–1 Preston
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Wrexham win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
61′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
64′We published Wrexham at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
64′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Andrew Hughes · Preston
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Wrexham 4–1 Preston
65′Joe Worrall scores for Wrexham on 63′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Jordan Thompson · Preston
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Wrexham · On: Issa Kabore · Off: Danny Imray
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Preston · On: Delano Burgzorg · Off: Johnny Kenny
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Preston · On: Jusef Erabi · Off: Callum Lang
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Preston · On: Ed Nolan · Off: Alfie Devine
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Callum Doyle · Wrexham
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Leo Leroy · Preston
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Wrexham · On: George Dobson · Off: Matty James
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Wrexham · On: B. Cadamarteri · Off: Kieffer Moore
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Wrexham · On: Oliver Rathbone · Off: Callum O'Hare
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Wrexham · On: Lewis O'Brien · Off: Sam Smith
FTFULL TIME Wrexham 4–1 Preston
FTWrexham 4–1 Preston · Wrexham win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wrexham are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wrexham 51%, draw 25%, Preston 24%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Wrexham v PrestonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wrexham win51%

Draw25%

Preston win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueRacecourse Ground

RefereeSimon Hooper

Line-ups

Wrexham

3-4-1-2

Preston

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wrexham

Preston

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
24	Preston	10	−12	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Norwich City must have one eye on Steven Gerrard, Wrexham twistFootball League World · 16 Oct 17:30 · Norwich, Wrexham

Wrexham AFC: New Steven Gerrard & Scott Parker revelation emergesFootball League World · 16 Oct 08:36 · Wrexham

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wrexham

3-4-1-2

22 A. Patterson

5 D. Hyam

6 J. Worrall

2 C. Doyle

30 D. Imray

8 B. Whiteman

37 M. James

3 J. Ekomie

17 C. O'Hare

19 K. Moore

28 S. Smith

Coach · Phil Parkinson

Substitutes

21 · D. Ward

26 · Z. Vyner

34 · A. James

12 · I. Kabore

15 · G. Dobson

27 · L. O'Brien

47 · R. Longman

20 · O. Rathbone

11 · B. Cadamarteri

Preston

3-4-2-1

1 D. Iversen

14 J. Storey

6 L. Lindsay

16 A. Hughes

24 O. Offiah

27 L. Leroy

15 J. Thompson

3 A. Vukcevic

10 C. Lang

7 A. Devine

38 J. Kenny

Coach · Graham Alexander

Substitutes

21 · L. Nicholls

2 · P. Valentin

11 · T. Small

32 · E. Nolan

35 · I. Irwin

44 · B. Potts

23 · A. Moran

37 · D. Burgzorg

9 · J. Erabi

Our number · wrexham winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market60%

Us51%

~~Market~~60%

We make Wrexham a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wrexham v Preston~~1.69 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 4~~17 v 24

~~The market · Wrexham win~~60% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wrexham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wrexham win	51%	60%	−9
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Preston win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	48%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	30%	0
Wrexham or draw	76%	84%	−8
Wrexham clean sheet	34%	–	–
Preston clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.7 6.6 3.7 1 10.5 11.6 6.1 2.2 2 9.0 9.5 5.1 3 5.1 5.4 2.9 4 2.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wrexham down, Preston across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,905 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wrexham at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Preston away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Wrexham, 1.07 for Preston. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~WRE 2–1 PRE · PRE 1–1 WRE · PRE 2–3 WRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

WREXHAM

DDLWDL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

PRESTON

WLLDLL2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	Wolves	10	+3	17
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
8	Southampton	10	+11	16
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	11	−5	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4