Wolves v Watford prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Wolves 1–0 Watford WOLVES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wolves win~~54%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.142

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wolves win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wolves was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
1′KICK-OFF Wolves v Watford
26′Wolves have had 10 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 48–30–22
30′Wolves have had 12 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 47–31–22
35′We published Wolves at 54%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Wolves 1–0 Watford
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Wolves win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
36′Wolves find the net on 35′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Kieran Trippier · Wolves
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Iker Bravo · Watford
45′HALF-TIME Wolves 1–0 Watford
45′SECOND HALF Wolves 1–0 Watford
47′We published Wolves at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Hector Kyprianou · Watford
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wolves · On: Mateus Mane · Off: Rafiki Said Ahamada
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Watford · On: Jordan Zemura · Off: Marc Bola
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Watford · On: Othmane Maamma · Off: Krépin Diatta
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Wolves win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
68′We published Wolves at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Watford · On: Mamadou Doumbia · Off: Luca Kjerrumgaard
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Watford · On: Martin Payero · Off: Myron Boadu
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Jordan Zemura · Watford
78′We published Wolves at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wolves · On: Thomas Doyle · Off: Jordan James
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wolves · On: Tawanda Chirewa · Off: Adam Armstrong
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Thomas Doyle · Wolves
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Wolves win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
86′We published Wolves at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Watford · On: Rocco Vata · Off: Iker Bravo
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Hugo Bueno · Wolves
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' José Sá · Wolves
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Wolves · On: Toti Gomes · Off: Hugo Bueno
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Wolves · On: Sean Neave · Off: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
FTFULL TIME Wolves 1–0 Watford
FTWolves 1–0 Watford · Wolves win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wolves are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wolves 54%, draw 24%, Watford 22%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Wolves v WatfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Wolves win54%

Draw24%

Watford win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMolineux Stadium

RefereeBobby Madley

Line-ups

Wolves

4-2-3-1

Watford

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wolves

Watford

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Wolves	11	+3	18
20	Watford	11	−9	11

In the news

from the pressAll ›

All 22 Watford FC managers appointed by Gino Pozzo ranked from worst to bestFootball League World · 24 Oct 07:40 · Watford

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wolves

4-2-3-1

1 José Sá

2 K. Trippier

15 Y. Mosquera

37 L. Krejčí

3 Hugo Bueno

7 André

5 M. Munetsi

27 J. Bellegarde

19 R. Saïd

8 J. James

10 A. Armstrong

Coach · César Peixoto

Substitutes

23 · T. Chirewa

20 · T. Doyle

28 · Fer López

36 · M. Mane

14 · S. Neave

62 · L. Rawlings

38 · J. Tchatchoua

24 · Toti Gomes

13 · João Virgínia

Watford

5-3-2

1 F. Ravaglia

16 M. Bola

29 Branimir Mlačić

6 M. Pollock

4 K. Keben

15 K. Diatta

17 Iker Bravo

5 H. Kyprianou

39 E. Kayembe

10 M. Boadu

9 L. Kjerrumgaard

Coach · A. Dionisi

Substitutes

11 · R. Vata

33 · J. Zemura

23 · O. Traoré

22 · M. Payero

21 · Amin Nabizada

45 · S. Mavididi

7 · O. Maamma

20 · M. Doumbia

26 · D. Bachmann

Our number · wolves winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

54% The market70%

Us54%

~~Market~~70%

We make Wolves a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wolves v Watford~~1.76 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~7 v 20

~~The market · Wolves win~~70% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wolves win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wolves win	54%	70%	−16
Draw	24%	19%	+5
Watford win	22%	12%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	59%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Wolves or draw	78%	88%	−10
Wolves clean sheet	35%	–	–
Watford clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.4 6.2 3.3 1 10.5 11.2 5.8 2.0 2 9.3 9.6 5.0 3 5.5 5.7 3.0 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wolves down, Watford across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,918 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wolves at home: 1.80 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Watford away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Wolves, 1.05 for Watford. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WOL 4–0 WAT · WAT 0–2 WOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept

WOLVES

WWLLWD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

WATFORD

WLLLLW2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–5 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	11	+8	23
3	West Ham	11	+18	22
4	Birmingham	11	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	+11	17
9	QPR	11	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	−1	14
15	Bristol City	11	−3	14
16	Charlton	11	−5	14
17	Bolton	12	−7	14
18	Lincoln	11	−10	12
19	Cardiff	11	+1	11
20	Watford	11	−9	11
21	Norwich	11	−4	9
22	Burnley	11	−5	8
23	Derby	11	−11	6
24	Preston	11	−15	4