Wolves v Bolton prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Wolves 1–3 Bolton WOLVES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wolves win~~54%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.935

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.256

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wolves win at 54%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Wolves 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
1′KICK-OFF Wolves v Bolton
25′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Mateus Mane · Wolves
27′Atsuki Ito scores for Bolton on 28′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 49–28–23
27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Wolves 0–0 Bolton · Atsuki Ito
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Wolves 0–1 Bolton · Atsuki Ito
28′We said Wolves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–26–51
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Wolves win: 54% at kick-off, 23% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Bolton win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Wolves win 23%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 22–26–52
39′We said Wolves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–55
45′SECOND HALF Wolves 0–1 Bolton
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Gaizka Larrazabal · Bolton
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Wolves 1–1 Bolton · Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
50′50′ and it is 1–1: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde on the scoresheet for Wolves. 1–1 · 41–38–21
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Wolves win: 54% at kick-off, 41% now
51′We said Wolves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–39–21
54′We said Wolves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–41–20
55′Wolves have had 11.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 38–41–20
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Bolton win 20%)
59′Wolves have had 13.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 36–45–19
62′We said Wolves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–19
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Wolves · On: Rafiki Said Ahamada · Off: Mateus Mane Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Bolton · On: Jayden Nelson · Off: Thierry Gale Corrected
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Wolves win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bolton · On: Ruben Rodrigues · Off: Atsuki Ito Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bolton · On: Sam Dalby · Off: Thelonius Bair Corrected
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Wolves 1–2 Bolton · Atsuki Ito
75′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Ethan Erhahon · Bolton
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bolton · On: Xavier Simons · Off: Ethan Erhahon Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bolton · On: Max Conway · Off: Thierry Gale Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Wolves · On: Marshall Munetsi · Off: Jordan James Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Wolves · On: Ghislain Konan · Off: Hugo Bueno Corrected
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Wolves 1–3 Bolton · Sam Dalby
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wolves · On: Sean Neave · Off: André Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Kieran Trippier · Wolves
92′Josh Sheehan scores for Bolton on 82′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Sean Neave · Wolves
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Wolves win: 54% at kick-off, 0% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Bolton win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
FTFULL TIME Wolves 1–3 Bolton
FTWolves 1–3 Bolton · Wolves win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Wolves win54%

Draw23%

Bolton win23%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueMolineux Stadium

RefereeTim Robinson

Line-ups

Wolves

4-2-3-1

Bolton

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Wolves

Bolton

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
17	Bolton	9	−5	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Sheffield Wednesday face player issue that Sunderland & Bolton Wanderers know wellFootball League World · 32 min ago · Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland, Bolton, Wanderers

Wolves star Fer Lopez scoops new EFL award after 'very special moment'Mirror Football · 7 hours ago · Wolves

Police release statement after 'alarming' fan incident in Middlesbrough v Wolves matchFootball League World · 8 hours ago · Police, Middlesbrough, Wolves

6 players set to miss Wolves vs Bolton Wanderers ft 130-capped internationalFootball League World · 11 hours ago · Wolves, Bolton, Wanderers

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wolves

4-2-3-1

1 J. Sa

2 K. Trippier

34 N. Djiga

37 L. Krejci

3 H. Bueno

7 Andre

8 J. James

27 J. Bellegarde

28 F. Lopez

36 M. Mane

10 A. Armstrong

Coach · Cesar Peixoto

Substitutes

13 · J. Virginia

33 · G. Konan

24 · Toti

20 · T. Doyle

5 · M. Munetsi

23 · T. Chirewa

14 · S. Neave

19 · R. Said

38 · J. Tchatchoua

Bolton

4-4-2

31 G. Bazunu

22 G. Larrazabal

18 E. Toal

5 L. Brunt

14 A. Famewo

16 S. Iling Junior

8 J. Sheehan

21 E. Erhahon

11 T. Gale

9 T. Bair

17 A. Ito

Coach · Steven Schumacher

Substitutes

1 · J. Bonham

6 · B. Davies

25 · M. Conway

4 · X. Simons

35 · M. Lott

26 · J. Nelson

39 · R. Hardie

10 · S. Dalby

20 · R. Rodrigues

Our number · wolves winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

54% The market68%

Us54%

~~Market~~68%

We make Wolves a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wolves win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wolves win	54%	68%	−14
Draw	23%	19%	+4
Bolton win	23%	12%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	58%	51%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	38%	−2
Wolves or draw	77%	88%	−11
Wolves clean sheet	32%	–	–
Bolton clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.2 5.3 3.2 1 8.8 10.5 5.9 2.3 2 8.4 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 5.3 6.0 3.5 4 2.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wolves down, Bolton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,892 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Wolves at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Bolton away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Wolves, 1.16 for Bolton. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Championship since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Championship

WOLVES

WLDWWL4–1 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

BOLTON

LLLWWL2–3 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	Southampton	9	+10	17
4	West Ham	9	+11	16
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	−2	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4