West Ham v Southampton

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said West Ham win at 49%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: West Ham 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–29
3. 1′KICK-OFF West Ham v Southampton
4. 3′A goal for Southampton on 2′. 0–0 · 48–23–29
5. 3′We said West Ham at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–21–52
6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' West Ham 0–1 Southampton
7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' West Ham win: 49% at kick-off, 27% now
8. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Southampton win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was West Ham win 48%)
9. 12′Southampton ahead on 11′ through James Bree. 0–2. 0–2 · 11–14–75
10. 12′⚽ GOAL · 11' West Ham 0–2 Southampton · James Bree
11. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' West Ham win: 49% at kick-off, 11% now
12. 13′We said West Ham at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–2 · 11–14–75
13. 19′We said West Ham at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–14–77
14. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' West Ham win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
15. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Manor Solomon · West Ham
16. 24′We said West Ham at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–2 · 22–23–55
17. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' West Ham 1–2 Southampton
18. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' West Ham win: 49% at kick-off, 22% now
19. 26′Kyle Walker-Peters scores for West Ham on 24′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 21–23–56
20. 32′We said West Ham at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–24–57
21. 35′34′: Lewis Dobbin on the scoresheet for Southampton. 1–2 · 18–24–58
22. 35′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 6–12–82
23. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' West Ham 1–3 Southampton · Lewis Dobbin
24. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' West Ham win: 49% at kick-off, 6% now
25. 44′We said West Ham at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–3 · 4–11–85
26. 45′HALF-TIME West Ham 1–3 Southampton
27. 46′SECOND HALF West Ham 1–3 Southampton
28. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' West Ham · On: Ollie Scarles · Off: Felipe Morato
29. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Caspar Jander · Southampton
30. 58′18 shots for West Ham, 13 the other way, and they still trail 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–90
31. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' West Ham · On: Tomáš Souček · Off: Manor Solomon
32. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' West Ham · On: Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus · Off: Divine Mukasa
33. 65′20 shots for West Ham, 14 the other way, and they still trail 1–3. 1–3 · 1–6–93
34. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Southampton · On: Samuel Edozie · Off: Léo Scienza
35. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Southampton · On: Welington · Off: Kuryu Matsuki
36. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' West Ham · On: Edvin Austbö · Off: Kyle Walker-Peters
37. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' West Ham · On: Joel Piroe · Off: Mohamadou Kante
38. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Lewis Dobbin · Southampton
39. 84′24 shots for West Ham, 15 the other way, and they still trail 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
40. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Southampton · On: Divin Mubama · Off: Lewis Dobbin
41. 93′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–3–97
42. 93′West Ham pull one back on 90′ through Tomáš Souček. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–97
43. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' West Ham 2–3 Southampton
44. FTFULL TIME West Ham 2–3 Southampton
45. FTWest Ham 2–3 Southampton · West Ham win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.