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West Ham v QPR

West Ham

1–1Full time

QPR

Championship · FRI 9 OCT · London Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

West Ham 1–1 QPR WEST HAM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said West Ham win~~60%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.024

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.091

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said West Ham win at 60%.
0′KICK-OFF West Ham v QPR
1′Much as we predicted: West Ham was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–19
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Arne Engels · West Ham
18′QPR ahead on 18′ through Nicolas Madsen. 0–1. 0–1 · 31–25–43
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' West Ham 0–1 QPR
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' West Ham 0–1 QPR · Nicolas Madsen
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' West Ham win: 60% at kick-off, 31% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' QPR win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was West Ham win 31%)
19′We said West Ham at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–26–43
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' West Ham win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Boy Kemper · QPR
24′We said West Ham at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–45
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 27–27–47
35′We said West Ham at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–48
45′SECOND HALF West Ham 0–1 QPR
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' West Ham · On: Edvin Austbö · Off: Kyle Walker-Peters Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' West Ham · On: Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus · Off: Tomáš Souček Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' QPR · On: Harvey Vale · Off: Paul Smyth Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Maximilian Kilman · West Ham
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Felipe Morato · West Ham
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Glen Kamara · QPR
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' West Ham · On: Lewis Orford · Off: Divine Mukasa Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' West Ham · On: Joel Piroe · Off: Manor Solomon Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' QPR · On: Richard Kone · Off: Rayan Jawad Kolli Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' QPR · On: Tariq Lamptey · Off: Boy Kemper Corrected
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' West Ham 1–1 QPR · Nicolas Madsen
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' West Ham 1–1 QPR · Jarrod Bowen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' QPR · On: Amadou Salif Mbengue · Off: Kwame Poku Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Richard Kone · QPR
91′PENALTY MISSED · 91' Jarrod Bowen · West Ham
FTFULL TIME West Ham 1–1 QPR
FTWest Ham 1–1 QPR · West Ham win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

West Ham win60%

Draw21%

QPR win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

How to watch West Ham vs QPR – TV channel, live stream and kick-off timeMirror Football · 3 hours ago · West Ham

Sir Harry Redknapp to make film debut in movie about day he pulled 'mouthy' West Ham fan from stands to playMirror Football · 8 hours ago · West Ham

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 20:00

Venue · London Stadium

Referee · Ricardo, Rueben

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

West Ham

4-2-3-1

1 M. Hermansen

2 K. Walker-Peters

15 K. Mavropanos

3 M. Kilman

5 Morato

28 T. Soucek

7 A. Engels

20 J. Bowen

14 D. Mukasa

10 M. Solomon

11 T. Castellanos

Coach · Nuno Espirito Santo

Substitutes

23 · A. Areola

34 · J. Veltman

30 · O. Scarles

58 · A. Golambeckis

61 · L. Orford

27 · S. Magassa

35 · E. Austbo

9 · J. Piroe

19 · Pablo

QPR

4-3-3

1 P. Charles

2 K. Adamson

3 J. Dunne

6 J. Clarke-Salter

12 B. Kemper

24 N. Madsen

5 R. Edwards

18 G. Kamara

17 K. Poku

26 R. Kolli

11 P. Smyth

Coach · Julien Stephan

Substitutes

13 · C. Ward

48 · T. Lamptey

4 · L. Morrison

27 · A. S. Mbengue

20 · H. Vale

40 · J. Varane

25 · J. Obikwu

33 · L. Scarlett

22 · R. Kone

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

West Ham

4-2-3-1

1 M. Hermansen

2 K. Walker-Peters

15 K. Mavropanos

3 M. Kilman

5 Morato

28 T. Soucek

7 A. Engels

20 J. Bowen

14 D. Mukasa

10 M. Solomon

11 T. Castellanos

Coach · Nuno Espirito Santo

Substitutes

23 · A. Areola

34 · J. Veltman

30 · O. Scarles

58 · A. Golambeckis

61 · L. Orford

27 · S. Magassa

35 · E. Austbo

9 · J. Piroe

19 · Pablo

QPR

4-3-3

1 P. Charles

2 K. Adamson

3 J. Dunne

6 J. Clarke-Salter

12 B. Kemper

24 N. Madsen

5 R. Edwards

18 G. Kamara

17 K. Poku

26 R. Kolli

11 P. Smyth

Coach · Julien Stephan

Substitutes

13 · C. Ward

48 · T. Lamptey

4 · L. Morrison

27 · A. S. Mbengue

20 · H. Vale

40 · J. Varane

25 · J. Obikwu

33 · L. Scarlett

22 · R. Kone

Our number · west ham winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

60% The market65%

Us60%

~~Market~~65%

We make West Ham a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · west ham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
West Ham win	60%	65%	−5
Draw	21%	20%	+1
QPR win	19%	15%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−1
West Ham or draw	81%	85%	−3
West Ham clean sheet	34%	–	–
QPR clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.6 4.3 2.5 1 8.5 9.6 5.0 2 9.1 9.7 5.2 3 6.4 6.8 3.6 4 3.4 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+West Ham down, QPR across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,880 Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

West Ham at home: 3.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). QPR away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for West Ham, 1.08 for QPR. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Championship

WEST HAM

DWWWWD1–1 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 6–0 · 2–2

QPR

WWLDDD2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	8	+11	15
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	West Brom	8	+2	14
7	QPR	8	+3	13
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4