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West Brom v Blackburn

West Brom

3–2Full time

Blackburn

Championship · SAT 17 OCT · The Hawthorns

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

West Brom 3–2 Blackburn WEST BROM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said West Brom win~~45%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.450

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.379

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said West Brom win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: West Brom 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
1′KICK-OFF West Brom v Blackburn
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' West Brom 0–1 Blackburn
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 20% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Blackburn win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was West Brom win 20%)
7′6′: Andri Guðjohnsen on the scoresheet for Blackburn, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
7′We said West Brom at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' West Brom 0–2 Blackburn
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 6% now
14′12′: Andri Guðjohnsen on the scoresheet for Blackburn. 0–1 · 18–25–57
14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Blackburn
15′We said West Brom at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–12–82
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' West Brom 0–2 Blackburn · Andri Guðjohnsen
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' West Brom 1–2 Blackburn
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 17% now
21′Barney Stewart scores for West Brom on 19′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 16–25–59
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Kristi Montgomery · Blackburn
25′🟨 YELLOW · 23' George Campbell · West Brom
28′We said West Brom at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–60
28′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Blackburn · On: J. Fevrier · Off: Ryoya Morishita
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 14–25–61
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Oladapo Afolayan · Blackburn
43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Chris Mepham · West Brom
45′SUBSTITUTION · 43' West Brom · On: Ousmane·Diakite · Off: Toby Collyer
45′HALF-TIME West Brom 1–2 Blackburn
50′SECOND HALF West Brom 1–2 Blackburn
59′West Brom have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 6–22–72
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Blackburn · On: Moussa·Baradji · Off: Oladapo Afolayan
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Blackburn · On: Mathias Jørgensen · Off: Todd Cantwell
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Blackburn · On: Jake Garrett · Off: Sam Morsy
62′West Brom have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–74
64′We said West Brom at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' West Brom · On: Aune Heggebo · Off: Barney Stewart
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' West Brom · On: Harry Whitwell · Off: Rabby Nzingoula
69′West Brom have had 17 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 3–19–78
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Sean McLoughlin · Blackburn
73′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 19–69–13
73′72′: Isaac Price on the scoresheet for West Brom, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 19–69–13
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' West Brom 2–2 Blackburn
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Blackburn win 13%)
74′20 shots for West Brom, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 18–70–12
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Blackburn · On: Hayden Carter · Off: Andri Guðjohnsen
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' West Brom · On: Nathaniel Phillips · Off: George Campbell
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' West Brom · On: Felix Horn Myhre · Off: J. Morgan
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
89′Felix Horn Myhre scores for West Brom on 89′. 2–2 · 5–92–3
90′We said West Brom at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–2 · 97–3–0
90′5 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 97–3–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' West Brom 3–2 Blackburn · Felix Horn Myhre
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' West Brom win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
FTFULL TIME West Brom 3–2 Blackburn
FTWest Brom 3–2 Blackburn · West Brom win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

West Brom are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: West Brom 45%, draw 29%, Blackburn 26%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on West Brom v BlackburnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

West Brom win45%

Draw29%

Blackburn win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueThe Hawthorns

RefereeAdam Herczeg

Line-ups

West Brom

Blackburn

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

West Brom

Blackburn

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Shock Burnley scenes emerge after Wolves defeat - it sparks Blackburn reactionFootball League World · 17 Oct 09:24 · Blackburn

Star set for 2027 Cardiff City exit - Blackburn Rovers & Leicester City must keep tabsFootball League World · 17 Oct 08:45 · Blackburn, Leicester

West Brom must sanction emotional Ipswich Town return after Nolan Galves blowFootball League World · 17 Oct 07:45 · West Brom, Ipswich

West Brom eyed Aston Villa transfer – they won’t believe what Unai Emery has doneFootball League World · 16 Oct 20:00 · West Brom, Aston Villa

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

West Brom

Formation not confirmed

1 M. O'Leary

18 B. Pereira

2 C. Mepham

6 G. Campbell

4 C. Styles

15 T. Collyer

21 I. Price

8 J. Molumby

20 R. Nzingoula

11 J. Morgan

9 B. Stewart

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · M. Ingram

3 · N. Phillips

22 · C. Townsend

17 · O. Diakite

7 · F. Myhre

29 · H. Whitwell

19 · A. Heggebo

23 · T. Bany

26 · K. Tunde

Blackburn

4-2-3-1

22 B. Toth

2 R. Alebiosu

6 T. Atcheson

15 S. McLoughlin

3 H. Pickering

8 S. Morsy

31 K. Montgomery

25 R. Morishita

10 T. Cantwell

21 O. Afolayan

9 A. Gudjohnsen

Coach · Tony Mowbray

Substitutes

1 · A. Pears

17 · H. Carter

27 · G. Beyuku

30 · J. Garrett

14 · D. De Neve

24 · M. Baradji

7 · A. Kargbo

11 · J. Fevrier

29 · M. Jorgensen

Our number · west brom winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market50%

Us45%

~~Market~~50%

We make West Brom a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · West Brom v Blackburn~~1.30 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 15~~7 v 10

~~The market · West Brom win~~50% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · West Brom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
West Brom win	45%	50%	−5
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Blackburn win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	38%	47%	−9
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	71%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	18%	26%	−8
West Brom or draw	74%	76%	−2
West Brom clean sheet	40%	–	–
Blackburn clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 11.4 9.8 4.6 1 14.1 13.1 5.9 2 9.3 8.3 3.8 3 4.0 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+West Brom down, Blackburn across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,905 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

West Brom at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Blackburn away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for West Brom, 0.91 for Blackburn. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BLA 0–0 WES · WES 1–0 BLA · WES 0–2 BLA · BLA 0–0 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

WEST BROM

WWDLLW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

BLACKBURN

LLWDWW1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	Wolves	10	+3	17
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
8	Southampton	10	+11	16
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	11	−5	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4