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West Brom v Birmingham

West Brom

0–1Full time

Birmingham

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · The Hawthorns

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

West Brom 0–1 Birmingham WEST BROM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said West Brom win~~45%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.831

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.676

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said West Brom win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: West Brom 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF West Brom v Birmingham
7′🟨 YELLOW · 8' West Brom
29′Birmingham have had 7.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 40–35–25
30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Alex Cochrane · Birmingham
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' West Brom 0–1 Birmingham
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' West Brom 0–0 Birmingham · August Priske
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' West Brom 0–1 Birmingham · August Priske
42′41′ and it is 0–1: August Priske on the scoresheet for Birmingham. 0–1 · 11–25–64
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 11% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Birmingham win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was West Brom win 11%)
44′We said West Brom at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–25–65
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 10–25–65
45′SECOND HALF West Brom 0–1 Birmingham
48′We said West Brom at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Birmingham · On: Patrick Roberts · Off: Liam Millar Corrected
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' West Brom win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
65′We said West Brom at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Birmingham · On: Marvin Ducksch · Off: August Priske Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Birmingham · On: Max Bird · Off: Jhon Elmer Solís Romero Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' West Brom · On: Barney Stewart · Off: Aune Heggebo Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Carlos Vicente · Birmingham
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Jay Stansfield · Birmingham
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' West Brom · On: Isaac Price · Off: Felix Horn Myhre Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' West Brom · On: Harry Whitwell · Off: Toby Collyer Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Birmingham · On: Taylor·Gardner Hickman · Off: Jay Stansfield Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Birmingham · On: Demarai Gray · Off: Carlos Vicente Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' J. Morgan · West Brom
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Bright Osayi-Samuel · Birmingham
FTFULL TIME West Brom 0–1 Birmingham
FTWest Brom 0–1 Birmingham · West Brom win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

West Brom win45%

Draw28%

Birmingham win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

West Brom missed out on £12m Ipswich Town star - One player will love itFootball League World · 4 hours ago · West Brom, Ipswich

How rich Wolves, Birmingham City and West Brom's owners really areFootball League World · 5 hours ago · Wolves, Birmingham

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · The Hawthorns

Referee · Gavin Ward

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

West Brom

Formation not confirmed

1 M. O'Leary

18 B. Pereira

3 N. Phillips

2 C. Mepham

4 C. Styles

20 R. Nzingoula

17 O. Diakite

15 T. Collyer

7 F. Myhre

19 A. Heggebo

11 J. Morgan

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · M. Ingram

22 · C. Townsend

6 · G. Campbell

21 · I. Price

35 · M. Crowther

8 · J. Molumby

29 · H. Whitwell

23 · T. Bany

9 · B. Stewart

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

1 J. Beadle

26 B. Osayi-Samuel

5 P. Neumann

4 C. Klarer

20 A. Cochrane

24 T. Iwata

14 J. E. Solis Romero

7 C. Vicente

28 J. Stansfield

17 L. Millar

9 A. Priske

Coach · Chris Davies

Substitutes

21 · R. Allsop

23 · D. Fry

2 · E. Laird

19 · T. Gardner-Hickman

18 · M. Bird

10 · D. Gray

33 · M. Ducksch

16 · P. Roberts

32 · L. Vazquez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

West Brom

Formation not confirmed

1 M. O'Leary

18 B. Pereira

3 N. Phillips

2 C. Mepham

4 C. Styles

20 R. Nzingoula

17 O. Diakite

15 T. Collyer

7 F. Myhre

19 A. Heggebo

11 J. Morgan

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · M. Ingram

22 · C. Townsend

6 · G. Campbell

21 · I. Price

35 · M. Crowther

8 · J. Molumby

29 · H. Whitwell

23 · T. Bany

9 · B. Stewart

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

1 J. Beadle

26 B. Osayi-Samuel

5 P. Neumann

4 C. Klarer

20 A. Cochrane

24 T. Iwata

14 J. E. Solis Romero

7 C. Vicente

28 J. Stansfield

17 L. Millar

9 A. Priske

Coach · Chris Davies

Substitutes

21 · R. Allsop

23 · D. Fry

2 · E. Laird

19 · T. Gardner-Hickman

18 · M. Bird

10 · D. Gray

33 · M. Ducksch

16 · P. Roberts

32 · L. Vazquez

Our number · west brom winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make West Brom a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · west brom win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. The market has gone from 40% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
West Brom win	45%	38%	+8
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Birmingham win	26%	33%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−6
West Brom or draw	74%	67%	+7
West Brom clean sheet	38%	–	–
Birmingham clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.4 9.1 4.6 1 13.0 13.1 6.1 2 9.1 8.6 4.1 3 4.1 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+West Brom down, Birmingham across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,881 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

West Brom at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for West Brom, 0.96 for Birmingham. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:12. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BIR 0–0 WES · WES 1–1 BIR · WES 1–0 BIR · BIR 3–1 WES

Form · last six in Championship

WEST BROM

LDWWDL1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

BIRMINGHAM

WDDLWD2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	9	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	QPR	9	+3	14
7	West Brom	8	+2	14
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4