Watford v Charlton prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Watford 2–0 Charlton WATFORD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Watford win~~42%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.512

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.588

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Watford win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Watford was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–30
1′KICK-OFF Watford v Charlton
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Dan McNamara · Charlton
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Myron Boadu · Watford
31′7 shots for Watford, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–36–27
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Iker Bravo · Watford
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Oliver Skipp · Charlton
34′Watford have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 36–37–27
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Watford win 34%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Tyreece Campbell · Charlton
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Watford win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′HALF-TIME Watford 0–0 Charlton
46′SECOND HALF Watford 0–0 Charlton
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Charlton · On: Alan Mwamba · Off: Oliver Skipp
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Conor Coventry · Charlton
51′We said Watford at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–46–23
53′We said Watford at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
58′We published Watford at 42%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–18–4
58′Luca Kjerrumgaard scores for Watford on 58′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–4
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Watford 1–0 Charlton
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Watford win: 42% at kick-off, 79% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Watford win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
61′We published Watford at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Charlton · On: sonny carey · Off: Conor Coventry
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Charlton · On: Harvey Knibbs · Off: Karlan Grant
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Charlton · On: Charlie Kelman · Off: Dan McNamara
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Watford win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Watford · On: Jordan Zemura · Off: Krépin Diatta
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Watford · On: Martin Payero · Off: Myron Boadu
72′We published Watford at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Watford · On: Branimir Mlacic · Off: Marc Bola
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Watford · On: Mamadou Doumbia · Off: Luca Kjerrumgaard
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Charlton · On: Millenic Alli · Off: Tyreece Campbell
79′We published Watford at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Watford win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
86′We published Watford at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Jordan Zemura · Watford
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Watford · On: Rocco Vata · Off: Iker Bravo
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Alan Mwamba · Charlton
94′We published Watford at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
94′90′: Jordan Zemura on the scoresheet for Watford, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Watford 2–0 Charlton
95′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Watford 2–0 Charlton
FTWatford 2–0 Charlton · Watford win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Watford are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Watford 42%, draw 28%, Charlton 30%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Watford v CharltonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Watford win42%

Draw28%

Charlton win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueVicarage Road

RefereeThomas Bramall

Line-ups

Watford

5-3-2

Charlton

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Watford

Charlton

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
22	Watford	10	−11	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Charlton Athletic to complete transfer for player Crystal Palace nearly signed in summerFootball League World · 17 Oct 09:06 · Charlton, Crystal Palace

Stoke City must be laughing at £2m Watford transferFootball League World · 17 Oct 07:40 · Stoke City, Watford

Charlton Athletic told to forget January transfer - 'He's better than others'Football League World · 16 Oct 20:30 · Charlton

Football Daily | Watford, a ‘fake news’ sacking and an apology to Elton JohnThe Guardian · 16 Oct 15:37 · Watford

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Watford

5-3-2

1 F. Ravaglia

15 K. Diatta

4 K. Keben

6 M. Pollock

3 S. Coulibaly

16 M. Bola

39 E. Kayembe

5 H. Kyprianou

17 I. Bravo

9 L. Kjerrumgaard

10 M. Boadu

Coach · Alessio Dionisi

Substitutes

26 · D. Bachmann

33 · J. Zemura

22 · M. Payero

29 · B. Mlacic

11 · R. Vata

45 · S. Mavididi

20 · M. Doumbia

7 · O. Maamma

21 · A. Nabizada

Charlton

3-4-2-1

13 A. Okonkwo

2 K. Ramsay

5 L. Jones

12 B. Koumetio

20 D. McNamara

34 O. Skipp

6 C. Coventry

18 I. Mesik

9 K. Grant

7 T. Campbell

11 M. Leaburn

Coach · Nathan Jones

Substitutes

25 · W. Mannion

17 · A. Bell

44 · T. Bindon

8 · H. Knibbs

14 · S. Carey

32 · A. Mwamba

23 · C. Kelman

19 · M. Alli

33 · M. Mbick

Our number · watford winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:30 · locked at kick-off

42% The market37%

Us42%

~~Market~~37%

We make Watford a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Watford v Charlton~~1.29 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~22 v 13

~~The market · Watford win~~37% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Watford win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Watford win	42%	37%	+5
Draw	28%	28%	0
Charlton win	30%	34%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−8
Watford or draw	70%	66%	+4
Watford clean sheet	35%	–	–
Charlton clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.0 9.9 5.3 1 12.2 13.2 6.8 2.4 2 8.0 8.3 4.4 3 3.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Watford down, Charlton across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,905 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Watford at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Charlton away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Watford, 1.05 for Charlton. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WAT 1–1 CHA · CHA 1–0 WAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

WATFORD

LWLLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–5

CHARLTON

LDDLDD0–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	Wolves	10	+3	17
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
8	Southampton	10	+11	16
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	11	−5	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4