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Watford v Burnley

Watford

0–4Full time

Burnley

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Vicarage Road

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Watford 0–4 Burnley BURNLEY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burnley win~~45%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.454

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.595

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burnley win at 45%.
3′Much as we predicted: Burnley was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 27–28–45
3′KICK-OFF Watford v Burnley
14′Jacob Bruun Larsen scores for Burnley on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–18–74
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Watford 0–1 Burnley · Jacob Bruun Larsen (assist Reo Hatate)
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Burnley win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
18′19′ and it is 0–2: Zeki Amdouni on the scoresheet for Burnley. 0–2 · 2–6–92
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Watford 0–2 Burnley · Jacob Bruun Larsen
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Burnley win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Watford 0–2 Burnley · Zeki Amdouni
23′We published Burnley at 45%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Watford 0–3 Burnley · Reo Hatate
27′Burnley ahead on 25′ through Reo Hatate. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
29′Burnley ahead on 25′ through Reo Hatate. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Burnley win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
35′We published Burnley at 45%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
35′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Watford · On: Othmane Maamma · Off: Iker Bravo Corrected
39′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Watford · On: Jordan Zemura · Off: Soumaula Coulibaly Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Watford · On: Martin Payero · Off: Luca Kjerrumgaard Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Watford 0–3 Burnley
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Watford · On: Myron Boadu · Off: Amin Nabizada Corrected
60′⚽ GOAL · 13' Watford 0–3 Burnley · Jacob Bruun Larsen (assist Reo Hatate)
60′⚽ GOAL · 19' Watford 0–3 Burnley · Zeki Amdouni
60′⚽ GOAL · 25' Watford 0–3 Burnley · Reo Hatate (assist Lucas Pires Silva)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Watford · On: Othmane Maamma · Off: Iker Bravo Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Watford · On: Jordan Zemura · Off: Soumaula Coulibaly Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Watford · On: Martin Payero · Off: Luca Kjerrumgaard Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Watford · On: Myron Boadu · Off: Amin Nabizada Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Burnley · On: Marcus Edwards · Off: Zeki Amdouni Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Burnley · On: Jamie Vardy · Off: Largie Ramazani Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Watford · On: Rocco Vata · Off: Mamadou Doumbia Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Burnley · On: Dastan Satpaev · Off: Jacob Bruun Larsen Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Burnley · On: Armando Broja · Off: Max Alleyne Corrected
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Watford 0–3 Burnley · Marcus Edwards
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Watford 0–4 Burnley · Marcus Edwards
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Watford 0–4 Burnley · Jamie Vardy
FTFULL TIME Watford 0–4 Burnley
FTWatford 0–4 Burnley · Burnley win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Watford win27%

Draw28%

Burnley win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ex-Celtic midfielder is still a free agent - Blackburn Rovers & Watford must eye him upFootball League World · 22 hours ago · Celtic, Blackburn, Watford, Swansea

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Vicarage Road

Referee · Andrew Madley

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Watford

4-2-3-1

1 F. Ravaglia

23 O. H. Traore

6 M. Pollock

29 B. Mlacic

3 S. Coulibaly

39 E. Kayembe

5 H. Kyprianou

20 M. Doumbia

17 I. Bravo

21 A. Nabizada

9 L. Kjerrumgaard

Coach · Alessio Dionisi

Substitutes

26 · D. Bachmann

16 · M. Bola

4 · K. Keben

33 · J. Zemura

22 · M. Payero

11 · R. Vata

45 · S. Mavididi

10 · M. Boadu

7 · O. Maamma

Burnley

4-2-3-1

37 G. Coudert

2 K. Walker

15 A. Ahmedhodzic

44 Igor

23 Lucas Pires

3 M. Alleyne

5 R. Hatate

19 L. Ramazani

29 J. Laurent

7 J. Bruun Larsen

11 Z. Amdouni

Coach · Nicky Hayen

Substitutes

1 · M. Weiss

22 · O. Sonne

14 · C. Roberts

18 · H. Ekdal

27 · A. Broja

17 · A. Hountondji

12 · D. Satpaev

9 · J. Vardy

10 · M. Edwards

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Watford

4-2-3-1

1 F. Ravaglia

23 O. H. Traore

6 M. Pollock

29 B. Mlacic

3 S. Coulibaly

39 E. Kayembe

5 H. Kyprianou

20 M. Doumbia

17 I. Bravo

21 A. Nabizada

9 L. Kjerrumgaard

Coach · Alessio Dionisi

Substitutes

26 · D. Bachmann

16 · M. Bola

4 · K. Keben

33 · J. Zemura

22 · M. Payero

11 · R. Vata

45 · S. Mavididi

10 · M. Boadu

7 · O. Maamma

Burnley

4-2-3-1

37 G. Coudert

2 K. Walker

15 A. Ahmedhodzic

44 Igor

23 Lucas Pires

3 M. Alleyne

5 R. Hatate

19 L. Ramazani

29 J. Laurent

7 J. Bruun Larsen

11 Z. Amdouni

Coach · Nicky Hayen

Substitutes

1 · M. Weiss

22 · O. Sonne

14 · C. Roberts

18 · H. Ekdal

27 · A. Broja

17 · A. Hountondji

12 · D. Satpaev

9 · J. Vardy

10 · M. Edwards

Our number · burnley winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market37%

Us45%

~~Market~~37%

We make Burnley a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · burnley win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Watford win	27%	35%	−8
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Burnley win	45%	37%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	41%	54%	−12
Both teams to score	46%	58%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	68%	76%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	21%	33%	−12
Watford or draw	55%	63%	−8
Watford clean sheet	26%	–	–
Burnley clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.1 12.7 8.9 4.1 1 9.1 13.0 8.5 3.9 2 4.7 6.2 4.2 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Watford down, Burnley across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,881 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Watford at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Burnley away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Watford, 1.36 for Burnley. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WAT 1–2 BUR · BUR 2–1 WAT · BUR 1–1 WAT · WAT 1–0 BUR

Form · last six in Championship

WATFORD

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

BURNLEY

LDLDLD1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	9	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	QPR	9	+3	14
7	West Brom	8	+2	14
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4